Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 7:00 PM ET
Kroger Field · 56° · wind 19 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (LSU–Kentucky) | 28–21 | 34–25 | – |
| Spread | LSU −7.6 | LSU −8.8 | LSU −8.5 |
| Total | 48.7 | 59.2 | 51.5 |
| Kentucky win chance | 31% | – | – |
Line moved from LSU −10.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Kentucky +8.5 ★ Under 51.5
Spread: 0.9 pts better than Vegas for Kentucky (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.8 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ LSU −8.5 ☆ Over 51.5
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for LSU. Total: 7.7 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around LSU by 7.634%
LSU by 14+
34%
LSU by 1–13
23%
Kentucky by 1–13
9%
Kentucky by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| LSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.091 #25 | Offense EPA / play | +0.064 #35 |
| −0.178 #4 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.073 #21 |
| +4.8% #16 | Offense success rate | +6.7% #11 |
| −10.2% #1 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.1% #62 |
| +0.036 #46 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.105 #19 |
| +0.131 #28 | Passing EPA / play | +0.006 #61 |
| −0.134 #15 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.010 #42 |
| −0.273 #2 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.127 #20 |
| +11.2 #8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.6 #27 |
| −7.7 #10 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.1 #33 |
| Situational | ||
| +5.8% #18 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.8% #45 |
| −3.8% #18 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.3% #95 |
| +1.76 #9 | Points per drive | +0.37 #42 |
| −0.50 #12 | Points per drive allowed | −0.32 #20 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.13 #28 | Line yards per rush | +0.37 #8 |
| −0.84 #2 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.14 #29 |
| −2.4% #25 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.9% #11 |
| +8.4% #3 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.4% #52 |
| +0.2% #70 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #32 |
| +4.9% #5 | Havoc created | +2.5% #20 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.047 #90 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.147 #122 |
| +0.058 #44 | Passing explosiveness | −0.081 #103 |
| −0.03 #57 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.10 #39 |
| +0.151 #126 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.195 #11 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #70 | Run rate | 54% #47 |
| −2.9 #28 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +4.6 #6 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| LSU | Season to date | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 4-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 43.6 / 15.2 | Points for / against | 34.6 / 26.8 |
| +28.4 | Avg margin | +7.8 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.9 |
| 59.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.6 |
LSU: last 5 games
| W63-14 | |
| W35-6 | |
| L24-32 | |
| W45-14 | |
| W51-10 |
Kentucky: last 5 games
| W35-34 | |
| W45-21 | |
| W31-21 | |
| L17-45 | |
| W45-13 |
