Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 12:45 PM ET
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 87° · wind 9 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (South Carolina–Florida) | 27–35 | 31–43 | – |
| Spread | Florida −8.4 | Florida −12.0 | Florida −11.5 |
| Total | 62.2 | 73.3 | 60.5 |
| Florida win chance | 70% | – | – |
Line moved from Florida −14.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ South Carolina +11.5 ★ Over 60.5
Spread: 3.1 pts better than Vegas for South Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 1.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Florida −11.5 ☆ Over 60.5
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Florida. Total: 12.8 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Florida by 8.49%
South Carolina by 14+
22%
South Carolina by 1–13
33%
Florida by 1–13
37%
Florida by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| South Carolina | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.054 #36 | Offense EPA / play | +0.179 #9 |
| +0.055 #72 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.026 #39 |
| +1.7% #44 | Offense success rate | +6.6% #12 |
| −1.2% #35 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.9% #58 |
| +0.131 #12 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.120 #15 |
| −0.014 #67 | Passing EPA / play | +0.219 #10 |
| −0.077 #23 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.010 #51 |
| +0.153 #104 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.015 #59 |
| +5.8 #24 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +12.9 #7 |
| −0.6 #49 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.0 #54 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.2% #76 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.0% #21 |
| +1.2% #69 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.4% #79 |
| +1.01 #16 | Points per drive | +2.17 #7 |
| −0.06 #35 | Points per drive allowed | +0.30 #53 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.52 #3 | Line yards per rush | −0.07 #60 |
| −0.46 #10 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.14 #75 |
| −2.9% #21 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.3% #58 |
| +4.6% #10 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.7% #110 |
| −1.1% #44 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.7% #10 |
| −1.3% #84 | Havoc created | +2.2% #25 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.119 #20 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.066 #38 |
| −0.011 #81 | Passing explosiveness | +0.027 #59 |
| +1.13 #1 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.41 #16 |
| +0.084 #109 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.091 #45 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #60 | Run rate | 57% #24 |
| −2.7 #26 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.1 #22 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| South Carolina | Season to date | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-3 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 2-2 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 37.6 / 26.8 | Points for / against | 46.2 / 27.2 |
| +10.8 | Avg margin | +19.0 |
| -3.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.0 |
| 63.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.8 |
South Carolina: last 5 games
| L34-35 | |
| L18-49 | |
| L34-41 | |
| W45-9 | |
| W57-0 |
Florida: last 5 games
| L17-45 | |
| W52-28 | |
| W44-39 | |
| W52-3 | |
| W66-21 |
