Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 4:15 PM ET
Razorback Stadium · 82° · wind 10 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Tennessee–Arkansas) | 33–20 | 34–15 | – |
| Spread | Tennessee −13.5 | Tennessee −19.5 | Tennessee −13.5 |
| Total | 52.9 | 49.0 | 51.5 |
| Arkansas win chance | 20% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Over 51.5
Total: 1.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Tennessee −13.5 ☆ Under 51.5
Spread: 6.0 pts better than Vegas for Tennessee. Total: 2.5 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Tennessee by 13.549%
Tennessee by 14+
31%
Tennessee by 1–13
16%
Arkansas by 1–13
4%
Arkansas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Tennessee | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.087 #27 | Offense EPA / play | −0.049 #81 |
| −0.134 #6 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.105 #92 |
| +2.7% #35 | Offense success rate | +1.8% #43 |
| −3.0% #20 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.6% #65 |
| +0.242 #2 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.016 #70 |
| −0.124 #100 | Passing EPA / play | −0.055 #81 |
| +0.026 #55 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.126 #107 |
| −0.244 #5 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.042 #68 |
| +11.0 #9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.8 #80 |
| −3.7 #27 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.7 #69 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.8% #96 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.6% #80 |
| −3.1% #26 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.6% #39 |
| +1.38 #12 | Points per drive | −0.35 #82 |
| −0.06 #36 | Points per drive allowed | +0.97 #98 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.49 #4 | Line yards per rush | −0.12 #74 |
| +0.14 #77 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.13 #72 |
| −4.7% #6 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.3% #41 |
| −0.4% #57 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.9% #99 |
| +0.8% #84 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.1% #92 |
| +4.5% #8 | Havoc created | −1.9% #96 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.179 #6 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.044 #88 |
| −0.105 #115 | Passing explosiveness | −0.163 #125 |
| +0.27 #26 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.50 #118 |
| −0.344 #2 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.157 #24 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #19 | Run rate | 47% #120 |
| −3.6 #36 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +3.0 #10 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Tennessee | Season to date | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 36.8 / 15.2 | Points for / against | 19.8 / 28.4 |
| +21.6 | Avg margin | -8.6 |
| +2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.8 |
| 63.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.8 |
Tennessee: last 5 games
| W24-14 | |
| L17-20 | |
| W42-9 | |
| W45-24 | |
| W56-9 |
Arkansas: last 5 games
| L7-34 | |
| W34-6 | |
| L17-45 | |
| L10-43 | |
| W31-14 |
