Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Neyland Stadium · 75° · wind 2 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Auburn–Tennessee) | 21–32 | – | 14–24 |
| Spread | Tennessee −10.8 | Tennessee −6 | Tennessee −10 |
| Total | 52.8 | 54.5 | 38 |
| Tennessee win chance | 75% | – | – |
Line moved from Tennessee −7.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Tennessee −6 Won★ Under 54.5 Won
Spread: 4.8 pts better than Vegas for Tennessee (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 1.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Tennessee by 10.86%
Auburn by 14+
19%
Auburn by 1–13
33%
Tennessee by 1–13
42%
Tennessee by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Auburn | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.035 #48 | Offense EPA / play | +0.098 #25 |
| −0.075 #17 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.123 #7 |
| +1.0% #46 | Offense success rate | +2.6% #37 |
| −3.3% #18 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.4% #17 |
| +0.092 #22 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.221 #3 |
| −0.040 #79 | Passing EPA / play | −0.022 #71 |
| −0.140 #11 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.023 #59 |
| +0.037 #66 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.218 #10 |
| +2.0 #50 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +12.7 #8 |
| −5.3 #15 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.5 #34 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.3% #41 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.5% #60 |
| −0.9% #45 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.4% #23 |
| +0.14 #56 | Points per drive | +1.65 #9 |
| −0.48 #12 | Points per drive allowed | +0.08 #41 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.10 #36 | Line yards per rush | +0.38 #8 |
| −0.49 #8 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.09 #66 |
| −1.7% #42 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.8% #10 |
| +3.4% #19 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.0% #70 |
| +0.0% #67 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #57 |
| +0.3% #49 | Havoc created | +4.4% #6 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.099 #110 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.218 #3 |
| +0.046 #57 | Passing explosiveness | −0.064 #99 |
| +0.19 #31 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.20 #29 |
| −0.016 #74 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.283 #6 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #81 | Run rate | 56% #24 |
| +2.2 #8 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.0 #37 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Auburn | Season to date | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 26.8 / 21.4 | Points for / against | 36.8 / 15.2 |
| +5.4 | Avg margin | +21.6 |
| -2.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.0 |
| 66.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Auburn: last 4 games
| W21-15 | |
| L39-44 | |
| W43-8 | |
| W17-16 |
Tennessee: last 4 games
| L17-20 | |
| W42-9 | |
| W45-24 | |
| W56-9 |
