Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 82° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ole Miss–Florida) | 32–33 | – | 28–52 |
| Spread | Florida −0.9 | Florida −4 | Florida −24 |
| Total | 65.3 | 58.5 | 80 |
| Florida win chance | 52% | – | – |
Line moved from Florida −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ole Miss +4 Lost★ Over 58.5 Won
Spread: 3.1 pts better than Vegas for Ole Miss (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 6.8 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Florida by 0.918%
Ole Miss by 14+
30%
Ole Miss by 1–13
31%
Florida by 1–13
21%
Florida by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ole Miss | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.199 #5 | Offense EPA / play | +0.189 #7 |
| +0.027 #72 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.062 #28 |
| +8.9% #6 | Offense success rate | +6.0% #13 |
| −0.9% #52 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.0% #39 |
| +0.192 #10 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.259 #3 |
| +0.221 #10 | Passing EPA / play | +0.169 #18 |
| +0.018 #67 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.053 #93 |
| +0.041 #72 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.047 #41 |
| +8.3 #17 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +12.3 #8 |
| −4.7 #23 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.8 #47 |
| Situational | ||
| +6.0% #11 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.3% #54 |
| −5.9% #10 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.7% #117 |
| +0.88 #25 | Points per drive | +2.38 #3 |
| −0.46 #30 | Points per drive allowed | −0.00 #63 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.03 #83 | Line yards per rush | +0.28 #38 |
| −0.08 #53 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.26 #115 |
| −0.5% #93 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.5% #49 |
| +3.2% #32 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.7% #127 |
| −4.0% #19 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.3% #16 |
| +0.6% #45 | Havoc created | +2.0% #19 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.283 #1 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.255 #4 |
| +0.093 #76 | Passing explosiveness | +0.111 #70 |
| −0.14 #66 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.36 #15 |
| +0.003 #64 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.029 #78 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #120 | Run rate | 61% #23 |
| +2.5 #12 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.3 #83 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ole Miss | Season to date | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 35.5 / 30.8 | Points for / against | 46.2 / 27.2 |
| +4.8 | Avg margin | +19.0 |
| -6.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.0 |
| 64.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.8 |
Ole Miss: last 3 games
| W32-24 | |
| W41-9 | |
| W41-38 |
Florida: last 3 games
| W44-39 | |
| W52-3 | |
| W66-21 |
