Final
Sat, Sep 26, 8:00 PM ET
Razorback Stadium · 73° · wind 11 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Tulsa–Arkansas) | 23–25 | – | 6–34 |
| Spread | Arkansas −1.6 | Arkansas −7 | Arkansas −28 |
| Total | 47.6 | 51.5 | 40 |
| Arkansas win chance | 54% | – | – |
Line moved from Arkansas −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Tulsa +7 Lost★ Under 51.5 Won
Spread: 5.4 pts better than Vegas for Tulsa (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.9 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arkansas by 1.616%
Tulsa by 14+
30%
Tulsa by 1–13
32%
Arkansas by 1–13
22%
Arkansas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Tulsa | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.083 #101 | Offense EPA / play | −0.077 #97 |
| +0.007 #51 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.099 #92 |
| −4.2% #101 | Offense success rate | +1.7% #43 |
| +2.1% #70 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.9% #78 |
| +0.032 #44 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.101 #106 |
| −0.197 #120 | Passing EPA / play | −0.029 #76 |
| −0.017 #41 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.148 #113 |
| +0.027 #63 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.001 #55 |
| −5.8 #100 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.5 #90 |
| −1.5 #44 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.6 #87 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.4% #135 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.9% #33 |
| +5.6% #112 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.6% #48 |
| −0.90 #108 | Points per drive | −0.73 #99 |
| +0.21 #41 | Points per drive allowed | +0.92 #93 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.08 #64 | Line yards per rush | −0.26 #97 |
| +0.25 #92 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.16 #72 |
| −0.0% #59 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.4% #41 |
| −2.7% #94 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.4% #79 |
| +0.1% #69 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.1% #107 |
| −2.5% #108 | Havoc created | −1.3% #84 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.174 #10 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.059 #91 |
| −0.108 #109 | Passing explosiveness | −0.188 #127 |
| +0.12 #37 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.56 #126 |
| −0.106 #36 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.111 #35 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #53 | Run rate | 47% #117 |
| −17.4 #112 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +1.4 #12 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Tulsa | Season to date | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 27.8 / 21.2 | Points for / against | 19.8 / 28.4 |
| +6.6 | Avg margin | -8.6 |
| +0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.8 |
| 63.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.8 |
Tulsa: last 3 games
| W42-0 | |
| W23-17 | |
| W24-10 |
Arkansas: last 3 games
| L17-45 | |
| L10-43 | |
| W31-14 |
