Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:45 PM ET
Neyland Stadium · 78° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Kennesaw State–Tennessee) | 13–46 | – | 9–42 |
| Spread | Tennessee −33.1 | Tennessee −35.5 | Tennessee −33 |
| Total | 59.1 | 60.5 | 51 |
| Tennessee win chance | 98% | – | – |
Line moved from Tennessee −34.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Kennesaw State +35.5 Won★ Under 60.5 Won
Spread: 2.4 pts better than Vegas for Kennesaw State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Tennessee by 33.10%
Kennesaw State by 14+
2%
Kennesaw State by 1–13
10%
Tennessee by 1–13
88%
Tennessee by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Kennesaw State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.110 #108 | Offense EPA / play | +0.186 #8 |
| +0.146 #114 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.109 #8 |
| −3.7% #95 | Offense success rate | +4.8% #18 |
| +5.7% #107 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.3% #33 |
| −0.044 #80 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.217 #2 |
| −0.184 #121 | Passing EPA / play | +0.191 #13 |
| +0.068 #81 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.058 #74 |
| +0.253 #131 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.293 #2 |
| −8.7 #123 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +15.4 #3 |
| +7.0 #103 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.3 #53 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.3% #117 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.2% #19 |
| +5.8% #117 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.8% #21 |
| −1.49 #132 | Points per drive | +1.93 #8 |
| +1.10 #104 | Points per drive allowed | +0.35 #61 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.31 #104 | Line yards per rush | +0.38 #7 |
| +0.18 #79 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.37 #111 |
| +7.6% #134 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.4% #16 |
| −0.3% #57 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.9% #88 |
| +1.4% #102 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.3% #35 |
| −5.2% #138 | Havoc created | +4.5% #7 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.091 #25 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.203 #4 |
| −0.213 #133 | Passing explosiveness | +0.181 #17 |
| +0.13 #36 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.37 #19 |
| −0.024 #70 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.283 #4 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #102 | Run rate | 57% #23 |
| −26.1 #127 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −16.1 #87 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Kennesaw State | Season to date | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 0-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 21.8 / 22.5 | Points for / against | 36.8 / 15.2 |
| -0.8 | Avg margin | +21.6 |
| +2.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.0 |
| 52.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Kennesaw State: last 2 games
| L17-31 | |
| W47-0 |
Tennessee: last 2 games
| W45-24 | |
| W56-9 |
