Final
Sat, Sep 19, 4:15 PM ET
Williams-Brice Stadium · 84° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MSST–South Carolina) | 28–30 | – | 41–34 |
| Spread | South Carolina −1.9 | South Carolina −3 | MSST −7 |
| Total | 57.4 | 59.5 | 75 |
| South Carolina win chance | 55% | – | – |
Line moved from South Carolina −7.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ MSST +3 Won★ Under 59.5 Lost
Spread: 1.1 pts better than Vegas for Mississippi State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around South Carolina by 1.916%
Mississippi State by 14+
29%
Mississippi State by 1–13
32%
South Carolina by 1–13
23%
South Carolina by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| MSST | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.208 #6 | Offense EPA / play | +0.008 #57 |
| −0.062 #23 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.014 #51 |
| +8.6% #5 | Offense success rate | +0.7% #46 |
| −1.4% #31 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.4% #30 |
| +0.247 #1 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.128 #14 |
| +0.147 #22 | Passing EPA / play | −0.076 #94 |
| −0.051 #32 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.080 #22 |
| −0.105 #17 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.039 #68 |
| +11.5 #10 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.7 #29 |
| −2.7 #31 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.4 #17 |
| Situational | ||
| +7.5% #15 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.0% #56 |
| −5.5% #11 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.4% #64 |
| +1.68 #12 | Points per drive | +1.37 #18 |
| −0.31 #18 | Points per drive allowed | −0.24 #19 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.48 #2 | Line yards per rush | +0.35 #9 |
| −0.13 #33 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.48 #7 |
| −3.9% #10 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.6% #14 |
| +0.8% #45 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.5% #11 |
| −1.3% #36 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.4% #78 |
| −1.4% #86 | Havoc created | −1.9% #96 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.159 #10 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.061 #36 |
| −0.061 #92 | Passing explosiveness | +0.015 #63 |
| +0.54 #11 | Open-field yards per rush | +1.26 #1 |
| −0.174 #17 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.182 #15 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #62 | Run rate | 51% #79 |
| −11.5 #65 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −28.6 #131 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| MSST | Season to date | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 39.0 / 28.0 | Points for / against | 37.6 / 26.8 |
| +11.0 | Avg margin | +10.8 |
| +6.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.8 |
| 61.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.8 |
South Carolina: last 2 games
| W45-9 | |
| W57-0 |
