Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 91° · wind 15 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (New Mexico–Oklahoma) | 14–35 | – | 6–14 |
| Spread | Oklahoma −21.6 | Oklahoma −21.5 | Oklahoma −8 |
| Total | 49.0 | 45.5 | 20 |
| Oklahoma win chance | 91% | – | – |
Line moved from Oklahoma −23.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Oklahoma −21.5 Lost★ Over 45.5 Lost
Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Oklahoma (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oklahoma by 21.61%
New Mexico by 14+
7%
New Mexico by 1–13
23%
Oklahoma by 1–13
68%
Oklahoma by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| New Mexico | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.081 #96 | Offense EPA / play | +0.041 #38 |
| +0.040 #67 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.139 #6 |
| −3.5% #91 | Offense success rate | +2.1% #37 |
| +1.5% #60 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.4% #9 |
| +0.026 #41 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.001 #57 |
| −0.221 #130 | Passing EPA / play | +0.083 #34 |
| +0.099 #98 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.091 #17 |
| +0.035 #67 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.138 #12 |
| +1.6 #44 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.7 #34 |
| +4.6 #93 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −10.6 #2 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.1% #79 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.7% #30 |
| +1.0% #62 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.8% #28 |
| −0.30 #72 | Points per drive | +1.46 #16 |
| +1.05 #100 | Points per drive allowed | −0.92 #5 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.12 #69 | Line yards per rush | +0.12 #26 |
| −0.17 #27 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.47 #8 |
| −2.6% #21 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.4% #96 |
| −2.0% #89 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.9% #26 |
| −1.0% #42 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.0% #69 |
| +1.8% #29 | Havoc created | +5.7% #1 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.047 #42 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.094 #108 |
| +0.265 #12 | Passing explosiveness | +0.072 #49 |
| −0.22 #78 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.10 #61 |
| −0.056 #54 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.108 #36 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #47 | Run rate | 50% #86 |
| −33.6 #137 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.8 #42 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| New Mexico | Season to date | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 5-0 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 43.4 / 10.6 | Points for / against | 22.0 / 16.0 |
| +32.8 | Avg margin | +6.0 |
| +19.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.0 |
| 50.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.2 |
New Mexico: last 2 games
| W70-7 | |
| W38-7 |
