Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium · 84° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Troy–Missouri) | 12–40 | – | 17–27 |
| Spread | Missouri −28.2 | Missouri −26.5 | Missouri −10 |
| Total | 51.8 | 49.5 | 44 |
| Missouri win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from Missouri −27.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Missouri −26.5 Lost★ Over 49.5 Lost
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Missouri (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Missouri by 28.20%
Troy by 14+
3%
Troy by 1–13
15%
Missouri by 1–13
81%
Missouri by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Troy | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.114 #116 | Offense EPA / play | +0.021 #51 |
| +0.045 #74 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.139 #7 |
| −8.6% #135 | Offense success rate | +1.6% #47 |
| +2.8% #94 | Defense success rate allowed | −9.2% #3 |
| −0.099 #124 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.032 #100 |
| −0.106 #96 | Passing EPA / play | +0.165 #17 |
| −0.020 #48 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.095 #21 |
| +0.020 #65 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.197 #6 |
| −9.0 #126 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.5 #34 |
| +6.5 #115 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.6 #30 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.1% #116 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.2% #20 |
| +1.5% #80 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.0% #23 |
| −1.61 #135 | Points per drive | +0.47 #38 |
| +0.72 #114 | Points per drive allowed | −0.33 #35 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.30 #126 | Line yards per rush | +0.20 #46 |
| −0.30 #19 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.46 #9 |
| +4.9% #135 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.9% #54 |
| +5.6% #11 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.1% #32 |
| +1.5% #126 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.0% #33 |
| +0.6% #45 | Havoc created | +4.6% #3 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.010 #73 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.146 #123 |
| +0.307 #17 | Passing explosiveness | +0.108 #70 |
| −0.22 #80 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.05 #54 |
| +0.011 #67 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.090 #104 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #69 | Run rate | 58% #42 |
| −24.8 #125 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −24.8 #127 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Troy | Season to date | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 28.0 / 24.0 | Points for / against | 37.6 / 20.0 |
| +4.0 | Avg margin | +17.6 |
| +0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 74.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
Troy: last 2 games
| W34-17 | |
| W24-21 |
Missouri: last 2 games
| W38-21 | |
| W54-14 |
