Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 88° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (LSU–Ole Miss) | 31–27 | – | 24–32 |
| Spread | LSU −3.2 | LSU −3 | Ole Miss −8 |
| Total | 57.8 | 58.5 | 56 |
| Ole Miss win chance | 42% | – | – |
Line moved from Ole Miss −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ LSU −3 Lost★ Under 58.5 Won
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for LSU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around LSU by 3.225%
LSU by 14+
33%
LSU by 1–13
28%
Ole Miss by 1–13
14%
Ole Miss by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| LSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.038 #40 | Offense EPA / play | +0.104 #23 |
| −0.271 #1 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.011 #60 |
| +5.1% #20 | Offense success rate | +7.0% #12 |
| −11.4% #1 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.0% #49 |
| +0.112 #30 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.091 #36 |
| −0.081 #93 | Passing EPA / play | +0.169 #15 |
| −0.254 #3 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.008 #62 |
| −0.297 #1 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.005 #46 |
| +9.7 #13 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.9 #21 |
| −8.9 #9 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.8 #37 |
| Situational | ||
| +8.9% #8 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.3% #19 |
| −9.5% #1 | Passing-down success allowed | −5.2% #17 |
| +0.96 #22 | Points per drive | +0.63 #31 |
| −1.12 #7 | Points per drive allowed | −0.30 #40 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.34 #27 | Line yards per rush | +0.00 #91 |
| −0.96 #2 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.27 #27 |
| −3.5% #46 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.4% #115 |
| +11.0% #1 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.5% #17 |
| −0.5% #95 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.8% #39 |
| +5.9% #1 | Havoc created | +0.6% #44 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.036 #61 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.082 #35 |
| +0.052 #85 | Passing explosiveness | +0.208 #36 |
| +0.31 #21 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.13 #67 |
| +0.207 #132 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.018 #72 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #102 | Run rate | 52% #113 |
| −1.4 #25 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.0 #56 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| LSU | Season to date | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 4-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 43.6 / 15.2 | Points for / against | 35.5 / 30.8 |
| +28.4 | Avg margin | +4.8 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.2 |
| 59.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.5 |
LSU: last 2 games
| W45-14 | |
| W51-10 |
Ole Miss: last 2 games
| W41-9 | |
| W41-38 |
