Final
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET
Razorback Stadium · 91° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Georgia–Arkansas) | 41–15 | – | 45–17 |
| Spread | Georgia −26.2 | Georgia −24.5 | Georgia −28 |
| Total | 56.0 | 54.5 | 62 |
| Arkansas win chance | 5% | – | – |
Line moved from Georgia −17.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia −24.5 Won★ Over 54.5 Won
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Georgia (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Georgia by 26.278%
Georgia by 14+
17%
Georgia by 1–13
5%
Arkansas by 1–13
1%
Arkansas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Georgia | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.276 #2 | Offense EPA / play | −0.076 #94 |
| −0.073 #17 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.122 #103 |
| +11.4% #2 | Offense success rate | +1.0% #44 |
| −6.5% #7 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.6% #72 |
| +0.217 #3 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.083 #98 |
| +0.269 #6 | Passing EPA / play | −0.037 #74 |
| −0.144 #9 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.121 #105 |
| −0.097 #19 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.069 #78 |
| +14.7 #5 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.3 #94 |
| −3.2 #25 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.6 #83 |
| Situational | ||
| +10.2% #6 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +3.4% #22 |
| −7.3% #4 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.9% #60 |
| +2.96 #2 | Points per drive | −0.70 #98 |
| +0.31 #54 | Points per drive allowed | +0.89 #89 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.70 #1 | Line yards per rush | −0.08 #67 |
| −0.71 #5 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.10 #65 |
| −4.5% #5 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.2% #60 |
| +6.1% #6 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.6% #58 |
| −0.8% #47 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.8% #106 |
| +1.3% #37 | Havoc created | +0.2% #52 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.017 #74 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.115 #113 |
| −0.044 #86 | Passing explosiveness | −0.157 #121 |
| +0.85 #2 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.47 #124 |
| +0.046 #97 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.064 #49 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% #121 | Run rate | 49% #101 |
| −32.6 #136 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.1 #50 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Georgia | Season to date | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 4-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 5-0 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 51.4 / 13.4 | Points for / against | 19.8 / 28.4 |
| +38.0 | Avg margin | -8.6 |
| +7.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.8 |
| 42.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.8 |
Georgia: last 2 games
| W70-20 | |
| W63-3 |
Arkansas: last 2 games
| L10-43 | |
| W31-14 |
