Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 89° · wind 15 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ohio State–Texas) | 26–26 | – | 23–24 |
| Spread | Texas −0.1 | Texas −2.5 | Texas −1 |
| Total | 51.3 | 50.5 | 47 |
| Texas win chance | 50% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ohio State +2.5 Won★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 2.4 pts better than Vegas for Ohio State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas by 0.119%
Ohio State by 14+
31%
Ohio State by 1–13
31%
Texas by 1–13
19%
Texas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ohio State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.239 #1 | Offense EPA / play | +0.155 #9 |
| −0.172 #2 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.094 #10 |
| +9.7% #2 | Offense success rate | +4.1% #22 |
| −7.7% #4 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.3% #14 |
| +0.103 #16 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.051 #31 |
| +0.289 #4 | Passing EPA / play | +0.262 #5 |
| −0.123 #8 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.130 #7 |
| −0.219 #2 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.078 #21 |
| +12.1 #6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +12.4 #5 |
| −12.5 #2 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −10.6 #4 |
| Situational | ||
| +5.7% #14 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +6.2% #11 |
| −6.4% #4 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.8% #96 |
| +2.33 #2 | Points per drive | +2.30 #3 |
| −0.91 #5 | Points per drive allowed | −0.99 #2 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.04 #39 | Line yards per rush | −0.10 #69 |
| −0.31 #12 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.26 #16 |
| +0.7% #63 | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.7% #124 |
| +1.3% #33 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.5% #15 |
| −2.0% #23 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.3% #78 |
| +3.1% #10 | Havoc created | +3.6% #6 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.102 #20 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.022 #80 |
| −0.075 #108 | Passing explosiveness | +0.153 #15 |
| +0.48 #10 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.18 #26 |
| −0.117 #27 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.054 #60 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #112 | Run rate | 48% #106 |
| −18.3 #90 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.8 #68 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ohio State | Season to date | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 42.2 / 12.6 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 13.2 |
| +29.6 | Avg margin | +20.0 |
| +1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.2 |
| 58.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.8 |
Ohio State: last 1 games
| W56-3 |
Texas: last 1 games
| W59-7 |
