Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Michigan Stadium · 78° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Oklahoma–Michigan) | 25–21 | – | 10–17 |
| Spread | Oklahoma −3.4 | Oklahoma −5.5 | Michigan −7 |
| Total | 46.0 | 43.5 | 27 |
| Michigan win chance | 41% | – | – |
Line moved from Michigan −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Michigan +5.5 Won★ Over 43.5 Lost
Spread: 2.1 pts better than Vegas for Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oklahoma by 3.425%
Oklahoma by 14+
34%
Oklahoma by 1–13
28%
Michigan by 1–13
13%
Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oklahoma | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.099 #22 | Offense EPA / play | +0.034 #44 |
| −0.141 #6 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.023 #35 |
| +3.3% #30 | Offense success rate | +1.4% #43 |
| −3.6% #13 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.6% #29 |
| +0.022 #50 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.074 #23 |
| +0.186 #10 | Passing EPA / play | −0.014 #67 |
| −0.120 #9 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.005 #44 |
| −0.069 #25 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.091 #18 |
| +6.3 #24 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.3 #71 |
| −10.6 #3 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.8 #24 |
| Situational | ||
| +5.6% #15 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.3% #59 |
| −5.3% #11 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.2% #48 |
| +2.00 #5 | Points per drive | −0.18 #62 |
| −0.81 #8 | Points per drive allowed | −0.24 #21 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.03 #52 | Line yards per rush | +0.15 #26 |
| −0.46 #4 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.05 #37 |
| +2.6% #102 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.5% #20 |
| +5.1% #6 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.8% #61 |
| +0.2% #74 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.6% #87 |
| +6.2% #1 | Havoc created | +1.1% #34 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.015 #73 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.077 #107 |
| +0.090 #31 | Passing explosiveness | +0.003 #70 |
| −0.14 #63 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.10 #55 |
| −0.168 #14 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.010 #75 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #68 | Run rate | 53% #57 |
| −19.8 #92 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −0.9 #42 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oklahoma | Season to date | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 22.0 / 16.0 | Points for / against | 23.0 / 15.8 |
| +6.0 | Avg margin | +7.2 |
| -8.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.3 |
| 53.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.2 |
Oklahoma: last 1 games
| W51-0 |
Michigan: last 1 games
| W13-12 |
