Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:45 PM ET
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 81° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Charlotte–Ole Miss) | 11–56 | – | 9–41 |
| Spread | Ole Miss −45.3 | Ole Miss −44.5 | Ole Miss −32 |
| Total | 67.0 | 59.5 | 50 |
| Ole Miss win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Ole Miss −46.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ole Miss −44.5 Lost★ Over 59.5 Lost
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Ole Miss (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.5 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ole Miss by 45.30%
Charlotte by 14+
0%
Charlotte by 1–13
3%
Ole Miss by 1–13
97%
Ole Miss by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Charlotte | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.193 #136 | Offense EPA / play | +0.152 #8 |
| +0.246 #138 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.003 #57 |
| −8.4% #136 | Offense success rate | +6.4% #10 |
| +10.9% #138 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.7% #27 |
| −0.052 #112 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.094 #35 |
| −0.266 #135 | Passing EPA / play | +0.210 #7 |
| +0.221 #136 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.003 #58 |
| +0.188 #121 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.003 #56 |
| −8.7 #124 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +10.8 #8 |
| +16.2 #138 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.5 #42 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.0% #99 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.1% #54 |
| +11.3% #138 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.0% #27 |
| −1.61 #138 | Points per drive | +0.86 #27 |
| +1.52 #133 | Points per drive allowed | −0.52 #24 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.30 #130 | Line yards per rush | +0.18 #55 |
| +0.38 #132 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.27 #23 |
| +2.5% #129 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.7% #42 |
| −1.9% #104 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.3% #32 |
| +0.8% #122 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.6% #18 |
| −4.2% #136 | Havoc created | +1.1% #33 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.139 #17 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.052 #103 |
| +0.149 #51 | Passing explosiveness | +0.323 #8 |
| −0.03 #42 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.12 #58 |
| −0.106 #23 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.170 #124 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #116 | Run rate | 55% #78 |
| −30.2 #109 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +7.1 #20 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Charlotte | Season to date | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-3 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 17.2 / 40.6 | Points for / against | 35.5 / 30.8 |
| -23.4 | Avg margin | +4.8 |
| -9.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.2 |
| 51.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.5 |
Charlotte: last 1 games
| L41-43 |
Ole Miss: last 1 games
| W41-38 |
