Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:45 PM ET
Sanford Stadium · 79° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WKU–Georgia) | 8–48 | – | 20–70 |
| Spread | Georgia −40.4 | Georgia −40.5 | Georgia −50 |
| Total | 56.3 | 55.5 | 90 |
| Georgia win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from Georgia −35.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WKU +40.5 Lost★ Over 55.5 Won
Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Western Kentucky (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Georgia by 40.40%
Western Kentucky by 14+
1%
Western Kentucky by 1–13
4%
Georgia by 1–13
95%
Georgia by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WKU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.117 #114 | Offense EPA / play | +0.192 #5 |
| +0.199 #132 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.079 #13 |
| −3.3% #98 | Offense success rate | +8.7% #4 |
| +5.9% #116 | Defense success rate allowed | −5.1% #9 |
| −0.180 #134 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.210 #1 |
| −0.105 #101 | Passing EPA / play | +0.164 #13 |
| +0.220 #134 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.176 #2 |
| +0.113 #94 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.090 #20 |
| −7.0 #112 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +11.5 #8 |
| +11.0 #131 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −6.9 #13 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.0% #83 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.5% #27 |
| +9.7% #137 | Passing-down success allowed | −6.1% #6 |
| −1.08 #123 | Points per drive | +1.93 #8 |
| +1.36 #120 | Points per drive allowed | −0.37 #16 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.30 #103 | Line yards per rush | +0.55 #1 |
| +0.48 #127 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.73 #2 |
| +4.7% #123 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.6% #19 |
| −3.0% #108 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.9% #7 |
| −0.3% #60 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.3% #34 |
| −4.4% #132 | Havoc created | +1.1% #33 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.198 #132 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.075 #27 |
| −0.041 #92 | Passing explosiveness | −0.092 #116 |
| −0.11 #60 | Open-field yards per rush | +1.12 #1 |
| +0.181 #134 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.130 #25 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 45% #131 | Run rate | 48% #108 |
| −6.9 #56 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −38.5 #128 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WKU | Season to date | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 1-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-4 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 19.8 / 39.6 | Points for / against | 51.4 / 13.4 |
| -19.8 | Avg margin | +38.0 |
| -10.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.7 |
| 52.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 42.6 |
Western Kentucky: last 1 games
| L14-49 |
Georgia: last 1 games
| W63-3 |
