Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium · 88° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UL Monroe–MSST) | 16–38 | – | 13–62 |
| Spread | MSST −22.2 | MSST −28.5 | MSST −49 |
| Total | 53.7 | 54.5 | 75 |
| Mississippi State win chance | 92% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UL Monroe +28.5 Lost★ Under 54.5 Lost
Spread: 6.3 pts better than Vegas for UL Monroe (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around MSST by 22.21%
UL Monroe by 14+
7%
UL Monroe by 1–13
22%
Mississippi State by 1–13
70%
Mississippi State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UL Monroe | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.123 #126 | Offense EPA / play | +0.032 #43 |
| +0.144 #125 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.016 #44 |
| −6.8% #132 | Offense success rate | +1.7% #40 |
| +5.4% #113 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.8% #48 |
| −0.107 #123 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.019 #40 |
| −0.088 #104 | Passing EPA / play | +0.023 #44 |
| +0.097 #109 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.001 #38 |
| +0.159 #127 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.004 #47 |
| −10.5 #136 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.4 #25 |
| +9.5 #126 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.6 #68 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.3% #121 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.0% #52 |
| +4.9% #124 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.2% #39 |
| −1.19 #135 | Points per drive | +0.48 #29 |
| +1.69 #134 | Points per drive allowed | +0.22 #45 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.37 #124 | Line yards per rush | −0.00 #42 |
| +0.26 #105 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.17 #84 |
| +4.6% #135 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.4% #36 |
| −3.0% #120 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.2% #106 |
| +2.3% #126 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.9% #115 |
| −2.7% #121 | Havoc created | −0.3% #64 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.020 #102 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.012 #79 |
| +0.100 #5 | Passing explosiveness | +0.059 #16 |
| −0.19 #94 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.08 #63 |
| −0.021 #75 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.020 #78 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #26 | Run rate | 55% #36 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UL Monroe | Season to date | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 24.0 / 44.6 | Points for / against | 39.0 / 28.0 |
| -20.6 | Avg margin | +11.0 |
| -10.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.0 |
| 57.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.0 |
UL Monroe: last games
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Mississippi State: last games
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