Final
Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET
Nissan Stadium · 85° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Louisville–Ole Miss) | 21–34 | – | 38–41 |
| Spread | Ole Miss −12.9 | Ole Miss −6.5 | Ole Miss −3 |
| Total | 55.0 | 54.5 | 79 |
| Ole Miss win chance | 79% | – | – |
Line moved from Ole Miss −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ole Miss −6.5 Lost★ Over 54.5 Won
Spread: 6.4 pts better than Vegas for Ole Miss (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ole Miss by 12.95%
Louisville by 14+
16%
Louisville by 1–13
32%
Ole Miss by 1–13
47%
Ole Miss by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Louisville | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.040 #38 | Offense EPA / play | +0.132 #11 |
| −0.063 #19 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.060 #21 |
| +3.5% #23 | Offense success rate | +5.4% #11 |
| −2.6% #23 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.7% #17 |
| +0.095 #24 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.099 #23 |
| +0.001 #46 | Passing EPA / play | +0.131 #11 |
| −0.026 #32 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.002 #47 |
| −0.072 #18 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.095 #15 |
| +3.2 #30 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +8.8 #9 |
| −2.7 #35 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.7 #22 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.3% #47 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.5% #9 |
| −2.2% #24 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.2% #23 |
| +0.33 #37 | Points per drive | +1.03 #11 |
| −0.26 #34 | Points per drive allowed | −0.54 #19 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.13 #56 | Line yards per rush | +0.18 #39 |
| −0.11 #35 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.10 #41 |
| −1.2% #82 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.6% #72 |
| +1.3% #37 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.8% #52 |
| −1.7% #55 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.5% #30 |
| +0.4% #40 | Havoc created | +1.3% #20 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.037 #16 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.032 #23 |
| −0.003 #137 | Passing explosiveness | +0.076 #104 |
| +0.32 #3 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.17 #17 |
| −0.071 #2 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.016 #82 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #112 | Run rate | 53% #103 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Louisville | Season to date | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 38.6 / 29.2 | Points for / against | 35.5 / 30.8 |
| +9.4 | Avg margin | +4.8 |
| -1.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.2 |
| 61.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.5 |
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