Final
Sat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM ET
S.B. Ballard Stadium · 63° · wind 14 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (James Madison–Old Dominion) | 27–19 | – | 46–20 |
| Spread | James Madison −7.9 | James Madison −7 | James Madison −26 |
| Total | 46.0 | 44.5 | 66 |
| Old Dominion win chance | 31% | – | – |
Line moved from James Madison −4.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ James Madison −7 Won★ Over 44.5 Won
Spread: 0.9 pts better than Vegas for James Madison (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around James Madison by 7.935%
James Madison by 14+
34%
James Madison by 1–13
23%
Old Dominion by 1–13
8%
Old Dominion by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| James Madison | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.007 #69 | Offense EPA / play | −0.172 #130 |
| −0.010 #50 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.073 #23 |
| −1.1% #83 | Offense success rate | −7.9% #134 |
| −1.9% #42 | Defense success rate allowed | −4.5% #16 |
| +0.049 #60 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.093 #122 |
| −0.017 #65 | Passing EPA / play | −0.285 #131 |
| +0.033 #73 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.116 #15 |
| +0.021 #62 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.068 #31 |
| +3.5 #34 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.5 #120 |
| −1.4 #51 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.5 #79 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.6% #51 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.6% #68 |
| +0.3% #73 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.2% #62 |
| +1.01 #19 | Points per drive | −1.33 #130 |
| +0.05 #66 | Points per drive allowed | +0.11 #73 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.04 #92 | Line yards per rush | −0.90 #138 |
| −0.11 #47 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.24 #28 |
| +0.7% #110 | Runs stuffed at the line | +5.6% #135 |
| −1.8% #97 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.8% #36 |
| −2.3% #49 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.8% #136 |
| −1.6% #91 | Havoc created | +1.4% #27 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.011 #67 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.274 #2 |
| +0.149 #54 | Passing explosiveness | +0.351 #12 |
| −0.22 #81 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.44 #13 |
| +0.098 #104 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.007 #69 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #31 | Run rate | 65% #8 |
| −22.7 #133 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.0 #74 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| James Madison | Season to date | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 1-4 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 5-0 | Against the spread | 0-5 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 44.8 / 13.2 | Points for / against | 19.8 / 32.4 |
| +31.6 | Avg margin | -12.6 |
| +17.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -16.2 |
| 60.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.4 |
James Madison: last 3 games
| W26-13 | |
| W87-3 | |
| W20-13 |
Old Dominion: last 3 games
| L17-20 | |
| L21-44 | |
| W31-10 |
