Final
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET
Bridgeforth Stadium · 76° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Liberty–James Madison) | 20–30 | – | 13–20 |
| Spread | James Madison −10.1 | James Madison −6 | James Madison −7 |
| Total | 50.8 | 50.5 | 33 |
| James Madison win chance | 74% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ James Madison −6 Won★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for James Madison (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around James Madison by 10.16%
Liberty by 14+
20%
Liberty by 1–13
33%
James Madison by 1–13
40%
James Madison by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Liberty | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.036 #79 | Offense EPA / play | −0.045 #85 |
| +0.090 #107 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.021 #61 |
| −0.3% #67 | Offense success rate | −1.5% #89 |
| +2.6% #97 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.5% #34 |
| +0.043 #60 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.013 #80 |
| −0.072 #89 | Passing EPA / play | −0.069 #86 |
| +0.067 #108 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.032 #74 |
| +0.081 #84 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.069 #77 |
| −3.6 #90 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.9 #73 |
| +3.9 #93 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.6 #64 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.7% #70 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.6% #96 |
| +2.2% #104 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.2% #86 |
| −0.43 #92 | Points per drive | −0.29 #81 |
| +0.46 #92 | Points per drive allowed | +0.28 #80 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.06 #81 | Line yards per rush | +0.03 #90 |
| +0.18 #119 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.12 #34 |
| −2.5% #38 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.7% #105 |
| −1.3% #107 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.1% #23 |
| −0.7% #90 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.8% #88 |
| −1.4% #105 | Havoc created | +0.5% #36 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.010 #108 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.009 #78 |
| +0.112 #60 | Passing explosiveness | +0.114 #58 |
| −0.15 #81 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.15 #77 |
| +0.041 #122 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.045 #125 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 62% #17 | Run rate | 55% #71 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Liberty | Season to date | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 2-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 30.4 / 17.8 | Points for / against | 44.8 / 13.2 |
| +12.6 | Avg margin | +31.6 |
| +3.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +17.4 |
| 63.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
Liberty: last games
No games yet.
James Madison: last games
No games yet.