Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET
Joe Aillet Stadium · 83° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NWST–Louisiana Tech) | 6–50 | – | 6–80 |
| Spread | Louisiana Tech −44.2 | Louisiana Tech −44.5 | Louisiana Tech −74 |
| Total | 56.4 | 56.5 | 86 |
| Louisiana Tech win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Louisiana Tech −41.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ NWST +44.5 Lost★ Under 56.5 Lost
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Northwestern State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisiana Tech by 44.20%
Northwestern State by 14+
0%
Northwestern State by 1–13
3%
Louisiana Tech by 1–13
97%
Louisiana Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NWST | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.407 | Offense EPA / play | −0.076 #110 |
| +0.496 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.068 #91 |
| −19.0% | Offense success rate | −3.4% #116 |
| +19.7% | Defense success rate allowed | +2.4% #93 |
| −0.278 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.005 #86 |
| −0.501 | Passing EPA / play | −0.131 #122 |
| +0.475 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.048 #90 |
| +0.463 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.117 #107 |
| −28.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.5 #109 |
| +33.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.9 #84 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.3% #116 |
| +15.9% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.9% #118 |
| −3.50 | Points per drive | −0.67 #114 |
| +4.97 | Points per drive allowed | +0.42 #90 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.08 | Line yards per rush | −0.02 #98 |
| +1.07 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.10 #92 |
| +12.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.6% #70 |
| −9.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.1% #75 |
| −0.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.2% #70 |
| −10.6% | Havoc created | −1.3% #101 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.003 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.015 #62 |
| +0.231 | Passing explosiveness | +0.206 #9 |
| −0.42 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.29 #119 |
| +0.085 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.000 #53 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% | Run rate | 64% #11 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NWST | Season to date | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-0 |
| 6.0 / 80.0 | Points for / against | 36.0 / 29.0 |
| -74.0 | Avg margin | +7.0 |
| -29.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +9.2 |
| 50.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.8 |
Northwestern State: last games
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