Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Williams Stadium (VA) · 77° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Gardner-Webb–Liberty) | 13–43 | – | 23–24 |
| Spread | Liberty −30.1 | Liberty −28.5 | Liberty −1 |
| Total | 55.3 | 55.5 | 47 |
| Liberty win chance | 97% | – | – |
Line moved from Liberty −25.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Liberty −28.5 Lost★ Under 55.5 Won
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for Liberty (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Liberty by 30.10%
Gardner-Webb by 14+
3%
Gardner-Webb by 1–13
13%
Liberty by 1–13
84%
Liberty by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Gardner-Webb | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.188 | Offense EPA / play | −0.050 #91 |
| +0.209 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.110 #111 |
| −10.4% | Offense success rate | −0.1% #62 |
| +6.2% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.2% #75 |
| −0.134 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.006 #84 |
| −0.162 | Passing EPA / play | −0.076 #88 |
| +0.136 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.084 #109 |
| +0.279 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.105 #94 |
| −12.6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.2 #102 |
| +12.3 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.6 #67 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.1% #52 |
| +10.1% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.1% #74 |
| −2.06 | Points per drive | −0.66 #100 |
| +1.22 | Points per drive allowed | +0.06 #62 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.76 | Line yards per rush | −0.02 #93 |
| +0.11 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.16 #104 |
| +9.8% | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.5% #30 |
| +1.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.1% #65 |
| +1.7% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.2% #44 |
| +0.6% | Havoc created | −1.4% #93 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.130 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.067 #108 |
| +0.219 | Passing explosiveness | +0.173 #38 |
| −0.50 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.43 #120 |
| +0.242 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.107 #110 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% | Run rate | 62% #14 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −4.1 #52 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Gardner-Webb | Season to date | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 29.0 / 30.0 | Points for / against | 30.4 / 17.8 |
| -1.0 | Avg margin | +12.6 |
| +25.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.3 |
| 73.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Gardner-Webb: last games
No games yet.
Liberty: last 1 games
| L13-20 |
