Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET
AmFirst Stadium · 84° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (EKU–JXST) | 14–39 | – | 7–49 |
| Spread | JXST −25.7 | JXST −22.5 | JXST −42 |
| Total | 53.0 | 51.5 | 56 |
| Jacksonville State win chance | 95% | – | – |
Line moved from JXST −19.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ JXST −22.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Won
Spread: 3.2 pts better than Vegas for Jacksonville State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 1.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around JXST by 25.71%
Eastern Kentucky by 14+
5%
Eastern Kentucky by 1–13
18%
Jacksonville State by 1–13
77%
Jacksonville State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| EKU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.249 | Offense EPA / play | −0.088 #107 |
| +0.239 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.120 #111 |
| −12.1% | Offense success rate | −4.3% #110 |
| +10.8% | Defense success rate allowed | +5.4% #112 |
| −0.206 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.056 #88 |
| −0.276 | Passing EPA / play | −0.118 #120 |
| +0.205 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.092 #105 |
| +0.278 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.123 #109 |
| −17.7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.2 #114 |
| +12.9 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.1 #112 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.8% #105 |
| +10.6% | Passing-down success allowed | +4.4% #115 |
| −2.08 | Points per drive | −0.85 #120 |
| +2.54 | Points per drive allowed | +1.14 #102 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.70 | Line yards per rush | −0.20 #83 |
| +0.56 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.13 #74 |
| +4.2% | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.6% #105 |
| −4.8% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.5% #84 |
| +0.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.2% #63 |
| −6.7% | Havoc created | −2.0% #106 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.048 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.006 #60 |
| −0.103 | Passing explosiveness | −0.001 #88 |
| −0.47 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.17 #89 |
| −0.047 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.008 #122 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% | Run rate | 59% #11 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| EKU | Season to date | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 7.0 / 49.0 | Points for / against | 27.4 / 21.8 |
| -42.0 | Avg margin | +5.6 |
| -19.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.6 |
| 62.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.0 |
Eastern Kentucky: last games
No games yet.
Jacksonville State: last 1 games
| L7-33 |
