Final
Sat, Sep 5, 6:00 PM ET
S.B. Ballard Stadium · 76° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Norfolk State–Old Dominion) | 5–49 | – | 10–31 |
| Spread | Old Dominion −43.1 | Old Dominion −41.5 | Old Dominion −21 |
| Total | 53.9 | 52.5 | 41 |
| Old Dominion win chance | 100% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Old Dominion −41.5 Lost★ Over 52.5 Lost
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for Old Dominion (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.4 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Old Dominion by 43.10%
Norfolk State by 14+
0%
Norfolk State by 1–13
3%
Old Dominion by 1–13
97%
Old Dominion by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Norfolk State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.331 | Offense EPA / play | −0.029 #77 |
| +0.322 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.001 #45 |
| −13.2% | Offense success rate | −0.4% #68 |
| +14.4% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.3% #79 |
| −0.171 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.015 #76 |
| −0.365 | Passing EPA / play | −0.069 #87 |
| +0.222 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.009 #53 |
| +0.424 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.045 #62 |
| −22.5 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.7 #78 |
| +26.2 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.2 #55 |
| Situational | ||
| −14.8% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.9% #83 |
| +10.2% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.2% #80 |
| −2.78 | Points per drive | −0.24 #78 |
| +3.48 | Points per drive allowed | +0.16 #68 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.71 | Line yards per rush | +0.13 #57 |
| +0.70 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.07 #86 |
| +6.4% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.9% #28 |
| −4.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.3% #66 |
| −2.7% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.7% #56 |
| −11.2% | Havoc created | −0.7% #79 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.204 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.003 #90 |
| +0.039 | Passing explosiveness | +0.220 #6 |
| −0.16 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.07 #50 |
| +0.039 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.057 #6 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% | Run rate | 63% #15 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Norfolk State | Season to date | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 0-5 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 6.5 / 45.0 | Points for / against | 19.8 / 32.4 |
| -38.5 | Avg margin | -12.6 |
| +6.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -16.2 |
| 62.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.4 |
Norfolk State: last games
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Old Dominion: last games
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