Final
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM ET
McLane Stadium · 94° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Louisiana Tech–Baylor) | 20–34 | – | 19–36 |
| Spread | Baylor −13.8 | Baylor −20.5 | Baylor −17 |
| Total | 54.1 | 50.5 | 55 |
| Baylor win chance | 80% | – | – |
Line moved from Baylor −17.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisiana Tech +20.5 Won★ Over 50.5 Won
Spread: 6.7 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Baylor by 13.84%
Louisiana Tech by 14+
15%
Louisiana Tech by 1–13
31%
Baylor by 1–13
49%
Baylor by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Louisiana Tech | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.080 #98 | Offense EPA / play | +0.015 #55 |
| −0.015 #46 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.070 #24 |
| −5.9% #127 | Offense success rate | +2.5% #37 |
| −1.3% #46 | Defense success rate allowed | −4.1% #15 |
| −0.068 #115 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.030 #68 |
| −0.051 #75 | Passing EPA / play | −0.017 #58 |
| −0.027 #44 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.150 #10 |
| +0.058 #76 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.026 #42 |
| +0.6 #49 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.3 #50 |
| +5.2 #99 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.6 #29 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.3% #79 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +6.6% #15 |
| −0.8% #51 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.9% #42 |
| +0.73 #29 | Points per drive | −0.12 #59 |
| +0.52 #98 | Points per drive allowed | −0.44 #26 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.20 #120 | Line yards per rush | +0.28 #36 |
| −0.18 #44 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.20 #41 |
| +0.4% #102 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.8% #56 |
| +3.4% #28 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.0% #54 |
| −0.2% #100 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.6% #66 |
| +2.7% #13 | Havoc created | +1.4% #34 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.433 #138 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.051 #97 |
| +0.687 #1 | Passing explosiveness | +0.230 #29 |
| +0.12 #35 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.48 #121 |
| +0.130 #115 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.047 #86 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #43 | Run rate | 47% #132 |
| −22.2 #119 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.0 #59 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Louisiana Tech | Season to date | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 4-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 36.0 / 29.0 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 14.2 |
| +7.0 | Avg margin | +20.6 |
| +9.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +9.3 |
| 49.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 69.2 |
Louisiana Tech: last 2 games
| L14-45 | |
| W80-6 |
Baylor: last 2 games
| W44-3 | |
| L16-17 |
