Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
Tiger Stadium (LA) · 83° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Louisiana Tech–LSU) | 13–40 | – | 14–45 |
| Spread | LSU −27.1 | LSU −34.5 | LSU −31 |
| Total | 53.4 | 54.5 | 59 |
| LSU win chance | 95% | – | – |
Line moved from LSU −31.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisiana Tech +34.5 Won★ Under 54.5 Lost
Spread: 7.4 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 1.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around LSU by 27.11%
Louisiana Tech by 14+
4%
Louisiana Tech by 1–13
16%
LSU by 1–13
79%
LSU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Louisiana Tech | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.003 #56 | Offense EPA / play | +0.095 #22 |
| +0.068 #88 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.203 #1 |
| −3.3% #111 | Offense success rate | +5.6% #13 |
| +1.1% #73 | Defense success rate allowed | −8.9% #1 |
| +0.039 #61 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.144 #16 |
| +0.027 #45 | Passing EPA / play | +0.053 #36 |
| +0.022 #71 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.155 #6 |
| +0.229 #129 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.230 #2 |
| +0.2 #50 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +8.8 #14 |
| +5.1 #104 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −9.5 #8 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.1% #51 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +10.6% #2 |
| +2.5% #94 | Passing-down success allowed | −7.5% #3 |
| +0.82 #28 | Points per drive | +1.24 #17 |
| +0.92 #123 | Points per drive allowed | −1.04 #9 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.06 #79 | Line yards per rush | +0.41 #10 |
| +0.01 #71 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.69 #3 |
| −1.5% #76 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.2% #17 |
| +0.1% #68 | Opponent runs stuffed | +9.5% #1 |
| −1.9% #51 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.3% #41 |
| +0.4% #51 | Havoc created | +4.2% #2 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.057 #45 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.016 #63 |
| +0.370 #4 | Passing explosiveness | +0.055 #93 |
| +0.29 #21 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.06 #33 |
| +0.108 #111 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.079 #36 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #35 | Run rate | 53% #101 |
| −63.7 #138 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +2.4 #32 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Louisiana Tech | Season to date | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 36.0 / 29.0 | Points for / against | 43.6 / 15.2 |
| +7.0 | Avg margin | +28.4 |
| +9.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.5 |
| 49.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.8 |
Louisiana Tech: last 1 games
| W80-6 |
LSU: last 1 games
| W51-10 |
