Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET
Kidd Brewer Stadium · 78° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Maine–App State) | 12–40 | – | 3–55 |
| Spread | App State −27.6 | App State −21 | App State −52 |
| Total | 52.5 | 53.5 | 58 |
| App State win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from App State −17.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ App State −21 Won★ Under 53.5 Lost
Spread: 6.6 pts better than Vegas for App State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around App State by 27.60%
Maine by 14+
4%
Maine by 1–13
15%
App State by 1–13
80%
App State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Maine | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.271 | Offense EPA / play | −0.077 #112 |
| +0.192 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.084 #102 |
| −12.2% | Offense success rate | −2.4% #103 |
| +9.5% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.1% #117 |
| −0.217 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.015 #103 |
| −0.278 | Passing EPA / play | −0.098 #101 |
| +0.191 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.048 #91 |
| +0.200 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.109 #103 |
| −18.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.6 #111 |
| +12.4 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.0 #117 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.9% #84 |
| +5.9% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.8% #114 |
| −2.22 | Points per drive | −0.61 #110 |
| +1.64 | Points per drive allowed | +0.70 #112 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.84 | Line yards per rush | +0.04 #88 |
| +0.71 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.05 #84 |
| +9.8% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.9% #60 |
| −4.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.0% #98 |
| −2.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.7% #97 |
| −7.9% | Havoc created | −1.1% #94 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.186 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.030 #131 |
| +0.043 | Passing explosiveness | +0.101 #74 |
| −0.14 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.27 #115 |
| +0.064 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.007 #43 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% | Run rate | 52% #116 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Maine | Season to date | App State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 9.5 / 38.5 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 22.2 |
| -29.0 | Avg margin | +12.5 |
| +0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.9 |
| 55.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.8 |
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