Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Dix Stadium · 72° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wofford–Kent State) | 19–31 | – | 15–36 |
| Spread | Kent State −12.5 | Kent State −10 | Kent State −21 |
| Total | 49.5 | 45.5 | 51 |
| Kent State win chance | 78% | – | – |
Line moved from Kent State −11.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Kent State −10 Won★ Over 45.5 Won
Spread: 2.5 pts better than Vegas for Kent State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kent State by 12.55%
Wofford by 14+
17%
Wofford by 1–13
32%
Kent State by 1–13
46%
Kent State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wofford | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.383 | Offense EPA / play | −0.072 #107 |
| +0.097 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.219 #137 |
| −14.5% | Offense success rate | −4.9% #124 |
| +9.5% | Defense success rate allowed | +8.4% #137 |
| −0.222 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.047 #110 |
| −0.494 | Passing EPA / play | −0.087 #94 |
| +0.073 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.200 #135 |
| +0.064 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.204 #124 |
| −18.4 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.2 #130 |
| +4.7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +12.8 #135 |
| Situational | ||
| −21.0% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.1% #115 |
| +11.2% | Passing-down success allowed | +5.4% #127 |
| −2.46 | Points per drive | −0.93 #117 |
| +0.92 | Points per drive allowed | +2.69 #138 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.58 | Line yards per rush | −0.06 #103 |
| +0.37 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.37 #130 |
| +1.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.5% #74 |
| +1.1% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.9% #121 |
| +1.8% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.2% #79 |
| −2.9% | Havoc created | −3.9% #133 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.105 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.046 #51 |
| −0.051 | Passing explosiveness | +0.219 #26 |
| −0.78 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.27 #93 |
| −0.232 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.006 #60 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% | Run rate | 59% #40 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +14.3 #11 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wofford | Season to date | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 15.0 / 36.0 | Points for / against | 15.0 / 31.4 |
| -21.0 | Avg margin | -16.4 |
| -11.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.6 |
| 51.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.2 |
Wofford: last games
No games yet.
Kent State: last 1 games
| L0-57 |
