Final
Sat, Sep 12, 1:00 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 84° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Colgate–CMU) | 18–36 | – | 10–13 |
| Spread | CMU −18.2 | CMU −18.5 | CMU −3 |
| Total | 53.3 | 48.5 | 23 |
| Central Michigan win chance | 87% | – | – |
Line moved from CMU −23.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Colgate +18.5 Won★ Over 48.5 Lost
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Colgate (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.8 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around CMU by 18.22%
Colgate by 14+
11%
Colgate by 1–13
27%
Central Michigan by 1–13
60%
Central Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Colgate | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.189 | Offense EPA / play | −0.118 #117 |
| +0.277 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.107 #109 |
| −6.1% | Offense success rate | −5.2% #125 |
| +12.4% | Defense success rate allowed | +5.5% #130 |
| −0.039 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.033 #65 |
| −0.135 | Passing EPA / play | −0.113 #99 |
| +0.180 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.130 #125 |
| +0.342 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.079 #84 |
| −13.7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.5 #131 |
| +15.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.9 #110 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.0% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.9% #123 |
| +8.6% | Passing-down success allowed | +4.2% #115 |
| −2.34 | Points per drive | −0.82 #109 |
| +2.04 | Points per drive allowed | +0.90 #121 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.03 | Line yards per rush | +0.10 #70 |
| +0.48 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.34 #124 |
| −1.6% | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.8% #24 |
| −1.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.9% #129 |
| +1.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.8% #89 |
| −2.2% | Havoc created | −2.8% #122 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.042 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.018 #62 |
| +0.377 | Passing explosiveness | −0.074 #135 |
| −0.39 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.36 #106 |
| +0.028 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.189 #7 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 65% #9 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.8 #49 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Colgate | Season to date | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 10.0 / 13.0 | Points for / against | 17.6 / 25.4 |
| -3.0 | Avg margin | -7.8 |
| +15.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 65.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 46.6 |
Colgate: last games
No games yet.
Central Michigan: last 1 games
| L7-38 |
