Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
InfoCision Stadium · 71° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Robert Morris–Akron) | 13–40 | – | 10–45 |
| Spread | Akron −27.5 | Akron −26.5 | Akron −35 |
| Total | 53.2 | 45.5 | 55 |
| Akron win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from Akron −27.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Akron −26.5 Won★ Over 45.5 Won
Spread: 1.0 pts better than Vegas for Akron (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.7 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Akron by 27.50%
Robert Morris by 14+
4%
Robert Morris by 1–13
16%
Akron by 1–13
80%
Akron by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Robert Morris | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.284 | Offense EPA / play | −0.144 #123 |
| +0.193 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.203 #133 |
| −18.3% | Offense success rate | −3.9% #105 |
| +7.6% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.7% #102 |
| −0.385 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.148 #126 |
| −0.147 | Passing EPA / play | −0.115 #105 |
| +0.263 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.132 #117 |
| +0.092 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.224 #128 |
| −20.4 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.9 #117 |
| +13.5 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +8.9 #121 |
| Situational | ||
| −16.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.3% #89 |
| +4.4% | Passing-down success allowed | +5.3% #112 |
| −3.18 | Points per drive | −1.04 #122 |
| +2.03 | Points per drive allowed | +1.24 #113 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.12 | Line yards per rush | −0.37 #114 |
| +0.90 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.41 #119 |
| +12.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.3% #118 |
| −8.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.5% #99 |
| +4.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.2% #98 |
| −3.5% | Havoc created | −1.4% #91 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.073 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.007 #65 |
| +0.392 | Passing explosiveness | −0.154 #133 |
| −0.89 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.24 #90 |
| +0.010 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.258 #138 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% | Run rate | 48% #107 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +0.4 #39 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Robert Morris | Season to date | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 19.0 / 38.0 | Points for / against | 19.0 / 33.6 |
| -19.0 | Avg margin | -14.6 |
| +8.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.9 |
| 58.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.8 |
Robert Morris: last games
No games yet.
Akron: last 1 games
| L16-38 |
