Final
Sat, Aug 29, 6:30 PM ET
Rynearson Stadium · 75° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SAC–EMU) | 22–33 | – | 17–28 |
| Spread | EMU −11.2 | EMU −9.5 | EMU −11 |
| Total | 55.6 | 52.5 | 45 |
| Eastern Michigan win chance | 76% | – | – |
Line moved from EMU −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ EMU −9.5 Won★ Over 52.5 Lost
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Eastern Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around EMU by 11.26%
Sacramento State by 14+
19%
Sacramento State by 1–13
33%
Eastern Michigan by 1–13
43%
Eastern Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| SAC | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.124 #128 | Offense EPA / play | −0.051 #81 |
| +0.173 #135 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.169 #134 |
| −6.8% #131 | Offense success rate | −3.3% #97 |
| +7.7% #135 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.7% #127 |
| −0.096 #114 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.057 #90 |
| −0.175 #134 | Passing EPA / play | −0.060 #88 |
| +0.152 #135 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.142 #133 |
| +0.163 #128 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.152 #125 |
| −7.2 #123 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.8 #109 |
| +11.2 #135 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +9.3 #123 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.8% #138 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.4% #98 |
| +6.3% #132 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.9% #129 |
| −1.08 #129 | Points per drive | −0.63 #101 |
| +1.57 #130 | Points per drive allowed | +1.35 #115 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.33 #114 | Line yards per rush | −0.22 #90 |
| +0.36 #130 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.39 #134 |
| +3.1% #118 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.9% #89 |
| −3.2% #125 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.3% #127 |
| −0.4% #57 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.8% #94 |
| −4.0% #135 | Havoc created | −3.8% #132 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.007 #63 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.019 #96 |
| +0.066 #10 | Passing explosiveness | −0.015 #101 |
| −0.25 #108 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.26 #115 |
| +0.014 #126 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.031 #59 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #33 | Run rate | 50% #94 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| SAC | Season to date | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-3 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-3 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-4 |
| 17.6 / 28.6 | Points for / against | 22.2 / 25.0 |
| -11.0 | Avg margin | -2.8 |
| -6.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.0 |
| 49.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.5 |
Sacramento State: last games
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Eastern Michigan: last games
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