Final
Sat, Aug 29, 5:30 PM ET
Fargodome · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (JXST–NDSU) | 24–26 | – | 7–33 |
| Spread | NDSU −2.0 | NDSU −6.5 | NDSU −26 |
| Total | 50.2 | 46.5 | 40 |
| North Dakota State win chance | 55% | – | – |
Line moved from NDSU −10 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ JXST +6.5 Lost★ Over 46.5 Lost
Spread: 4.5 pts better than Vegas for Jacksonville State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 3.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around NDSU by 2.016%
Jacksonville State by 14+
29%
Jacksonville State by 1–13
33%
North Dakota State by 1–13
23%
North Dakota State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| JXST | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.088 #107 | Offense EPA / play | −0.085 #103 |
| +0.120 #111 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.136 #120 |
| −4.3% #110 | Offense success rate | −4.5% #112 |
| +5.4% #112 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.2% #121 |
| −0.056 #88 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.089 #109 |
| −0.118 #120 | Passing EPA / play | −0.122 #122 |
| +0.092 #105 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.135 #130 |
| +0.123 #109 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.169 #131 |
| −6.2 #114 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.9 #110 |
| +7.1 #112 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.7 #106 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.8% #105 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.7% #104 |
| +4.4% #115 | Passing-down success allowed | +6.5% #133 |
| −0.85 #120 | Points per drive | −0.55 #93 |
| +1.14 #102 | Points per drive allowed | +1.55 #127 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.20 #83 | Line yards per rush | −0.37 #122 |
| +0.13 #74 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.37 #132 |
| +2.6% #105 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.6% #128 |
| −1.5% #84 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.5% #111 |
| −0.2% #63 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.2% #62 |
| −2.0% #106 | Havoc created | −4.2% #136 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.006 #60 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.012 #80 |
| −0.001 #88 | Passing explosiveness | +0.002 #79 |
| −0.17 #89 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.37 #129 |
| +0.008 #122 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.006 #117 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #11 | Run rate | 54% #41 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| JXST | Season to date | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 27.4 / 21.8 | Points for / against | 33.6 / 9.8 |
| +5.6 | Avg margin | +23.8 |
| +0.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 56.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.8 |
Jacksonville State: last games
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North Dakota State: last games
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