Final
Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM ET
Kidd Brewer Stadium · 67° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Charlotte–App State) | 18–39 | – | 21–26 |
| Spread | App State −20.8 | App State −16.5 | App State −5 |
| Total | 56.5 | 52.5 | 47 |
| App State win chance | 90% | – | – |
Line moved from App State −19.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ App State −16.5 Lost★ Over 52.5 Lost
Spread: 4.3 pts better than Vegas for App State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around App State by 20.82%
Charlotte by 14+
8%
Charlotte by 1–13
24%
App State by 1–13
66%
App State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Charlotte | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.159 #129 | Offense EPA / play | +0.014 #56 |
| +0.234 #137 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.097 #99 |
| −6.4% #129 | Offense success rate | −1.3% #80 |
| +12.1% #138 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.2% #111 |
| −0.040 #105 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.021 #95 |
| −0.218 #126 | Passing EPA / play | +0.144 #20 |
| +0.233 #138 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.155 #127 |
| +0.195 #119 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.003 #52 |
| −10.0 #131 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.0 #52 |
| +13.4 #136 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.3 #80 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.9% #101 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.4% #32 |
| +16.3% #138 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.7% #30 |
| −1.44 #132 | Points per drive | +0.45 #39 |
| +1.47 #132 | Points per drive allowed | +0.21 #79 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.25 #123 | Line yards per rush | −0.33 #130 |
| +0.35 #125 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.51 #135 |
| +4.2% #134 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.5% #103 |
| +1.4% #50 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.3% #117 |
| −0.8% #87 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #53 |
| −3.4% #129 | Havoc created | +0.2% #53 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.113 #27 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.134 #17 |
| −0.023 #112 | Passing explosiveness | +0.081 #80 |
| +0.06 #41 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.29 #86 |
| −0.356 #1 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.025 #53 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #108 | Run rate | 54% #84 |
| −12.6 #80 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −20.5 #112 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Charlotte | Season to date | App State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 0-3 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 17.2 / 40.6 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 22.2 |
| -23.4 | Avg margin | +12.5 |
| -9.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.9 |
| 51.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.8 |
Charlotte: last 2 games
| L9-41 | |
| L41-43 |
App State: last 2 games
| W27-24 | |
| W55-3 |
