Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · 84° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (App State–East Carolina) | 22–31 | – | 27–24 |
| Spread | East Carolina −8.6 | East Carolina −6.5 | App State −3 |
| Total | 53.2 | 55.5 | 51 |
| East Carolina win chance | 70% | – | – |
Line moved from East Carolina −11.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ East Carolina −6.5 Lost★ Under 55.5 Won
Spread: 2.1 pts better than Vegas for East Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.3 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around East Carolina by 8.68%
App State by 14+
22%
App State by 1–13
34%
East Carolina by 1–13
37%
East Carolina by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| App State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.037 #74 | Offense EPA / play | −0.012 #58 |
| +0.082 #85 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.033 #66 |
| −2.5% #81 | Offense success rate | −0.7% #62 |
| +4.6% #101 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.3% #73 |
| −0.072 #95 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.079 #100 |
| +0.041 #46 | Passing EPA / play | +0.042 #43 |
| +0.115 #111 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.047 #75 |
| +0.019 #65 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.020 #43 |
| −1.5 #65 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.2 #55 |
| +5.4 #95 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.9 #69 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.0% #54 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.5% #29 |
| +5.1% #108 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.0% #87 |
| +0.56 #34 | Points per drive | +0.11 #46 |
| +1.19 #106 | Points per drive allowed | +0.74 #83 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.49 #125 | Line yards per rush | −0.72 #136 |
| +0.35 #109 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.00 #48 |
| +1.6% #77 | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.6% #121 |
| −3.6% #116 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.3% #34 |
| +0.4% #82 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.9% #39 |
| −0.7% #77 | Havoc created | +0.0% #58 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.013 #54 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.039 #90 |
| −0.040 #89 | Passing explosiveness | +0.100 #29 |
| −0.23 #85 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.28 #98 |
| −0.037 #62 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.030 #63 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #110 | Run rate | 54% #42 |
| −37.3 #123 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +22.7 #4 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| App State | Season to date | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 34.8 / 22.2 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 25.2 |
| +12.5 | Avg margin | -1.2 |
| +7.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.5 |
| 64.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.5 |
