Final
Sat, Sep 19, 1:00 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 63° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wyoming–CMU) | 18–22 | – | 10–24 |
| Spread | CMU −3.6 | Wyoming −1.5 | CMU −14 |
| Total | 39.7 | 39.5 | 34 |
| Central Michigan win chance | 59% | – | – |
Line moved from CMU −2.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ CMU +1.5 Won★ Over 39.5 Lost
Spread: 5.1 pts better than Vegas for Central Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around CMU by 3.613%
Wyoming by 14+
28%
Wyoming by 1–13
34%
Central Michigan by 1–13
25%
Central Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wyoming | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.214 #134 | Offense EPA / play | −0.220 #136 |
| +0.093 #85 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.139 #111 |
| −6.9% #127 | Offense success rate | −10.3% #137 |
| +5.8% #109 | Defense success rate allowed | +8.0% #132 |
| −0.175 #131 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.062 #88 |
| −0.190 #123 | Passing EPA / play | −0.356 #138 |
| +0.052 #71 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.105 #103 |
| +0.179 #115 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.089 #86 |
| −15.1 #137 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −15.6 #138 |
| +5.4 #96 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.6 #97 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.5% #120 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −10.3% #133 |
| +2.5% #79 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.2% #102 |
| −2.03 #138 | Points per drive | −1.70 #137 |
| +1.02 #97 | Points per drive allowed | +1.50 #121 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.37 #115 | Line yards per rush | −0.17 #80 |
| +0.35 #107 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.43 #120 |
| +5.0% #119 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.1% #42 |
| −4.2% #113 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.7% #107 |
| +2.8% #121 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.4% #117 |
| −4.2% #133 | Havoc created | −1.8% #93 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.100 #109 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.102 #23 |
| −0.251 #136 | Passing explosiveness | −0.363 #138 |
| −0.69 #136 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.32 #97 |
| +0.101 #118 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.362 #1 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #48 | Run rate | 60% #9 |
| −22.2 #114 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.8 #86 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wyoming | Season to date | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 14.2 / 22.0 | Points for / against | 17.6 / 25.4 |
| -7.8 | Avg margin | -7.8 |
| -8.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 56.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 46.6 |
Wyoming: last 2 games
| W21-13 | |
| L13-35 |
Central Michigan: last 2 games
| W13-10 | |
| L7-38 |
