Final
Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM ET
War Memorial Stadium · 77° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UNCO–Wyoming) | 12–43 | – | 13–21 |
| Spread | Wyoming −31.2 | Wyoming −23.5 | Wyoming −8 |
| Total | 54.4 | 44.5 | 34 |
| Wyoming win chance | 97% | – | – |
Line moved from Wyoming −22.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Wyoming −23.5 Lost★ Over 44.5 Lost
Spread: 7.7 pts better than Vegas for Wyoming (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 9.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Wyoming by 31.20%
Northern Colorado by 14+
2%
Northern Colorado by 1–13
12%
Wyoming by 1–13
86%
Wyoming by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UNCO | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.233 | Offense EPA / play | −0.168 #132 |
| +0.320 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.123 #103 |
| −12.2% | Offense success rate | −4.4% #112 |
| +15.4% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.9% #104 |
| −0.216 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.076 #98 |
| −0.227 | Passing EPA / play | −0.173 #124 |
| +0.327 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.076 #91 |
| +0.296 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.159 #114 |
| −20.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −11.0 #136 |
| +18.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.5 #89 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.0% #117 |
| +11.7% | Passing-down success allowed | +5.1% #106 |
| −2.98 | Points per drive | −1.41 #133 |
| +2.48 | Points per drive allowed | +0.67 #76 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.72 | Line yards per rush | −0.20 #86 |
| +0.84 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.10 #67 |
| +9.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.6% #78 |
| −7.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.6% #84 |
| +8.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +4.0% #136 |
| −4.7% | Havoc created | −3.6% #124 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.158 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.051 #94 |
| +0.084 | Passing explosiveness | −0.128 #125 |
| −0.94 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.37 #114 |
| −0.054 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.000 #80 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% | Run rate | 54% #40 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.4 #61 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UNCO | Season to date | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 13.0 / 21.0 | Points for / against | 14.2 / 22.0 |
| -8.0 | Avg margin | -7.8 |
| +15.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.3 |
| 64.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.0 |
Northern Colorado: last games
No games yet.
Wyoming: last 1 games
| L13-35 |
