Final
Sat, Sep 12, 9:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl · 86° · wind 18 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Texas Southern–UTEP) | 15–43 | – | 10–51 |
| Spread | UTEP −27.9 | UTEP −27.5 | UTEP −41 |
| Total | 57.5 | 53.5 | 61 |
| UTEP win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from UTEP −25.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UTEP −27.5 Won★ Over 53.5 Won
Spread: 0.4 pts better than Vegas for UTEP (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UTEP by 27.90%
Texas Southern by 14+
4%
Texas Southern by 1–13
15%
UTEP by 1–13
80%
UTEP by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Texas Southern | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.225 | Offense EPA / play | −0.207 #137 |
| +0.272 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.137 #115 |
| −14.7% | Offense success rate | −5.4% #122 |
| +14.2% | Defense success rate allowed | +5.4% #112 |
| −0.118 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.107 #110 |
| −0.265 | Passing EPA / play | −0.157 #118 |
| +0.389 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.041 #72 |
| +0.165 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.232 #130 |
| −17.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.3 #123 |
| +23.6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +11.4 #133 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.7% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.4% #124 |
| +10.8% | Passing-down success allowed | +6.6% #123 |
| −2.54 | Points per drive | −1.13 #126 |
| +3.32 | Points per drive allowed | +2.49 #136 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.82 | Line yards per rush | −0.52 #127 |
| +0.99 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.14 #76 |
| +7.1% | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.1% #117 |
| −8.0% | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.1% #48 |
| +6.4% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.9% #128 |
| −4.6% | Havoc created | −2.6% #113 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.182 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.034 #87 |
| +0.293 | Passing explosiveness | −0.053 #100 |
| +0.12 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.25 #91 |
| −0.137 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.006 #84 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% | Run rate | 52% #67 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +17.0 #8 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Texas Southern | Season to date | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 10.0 / 58.5 | Points for / against | 16.4 / 41.4 |
| -48.5 | Avg margin | -25.0 |
| -11.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.5 |
| 49.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 36.6 |
Texas Southern: last games
No games yet.
UTEP: last 1 games
| L0-51 |
