Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET
Fargodome · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Fordham–NDSU) | 7–44 | – | 0–38 |
| Spread | NDSU −36.7 | NDSU −41.5 | NDSU −38 |
| Total | 51.1 | 54.5 | 38 |
| North Dakota State win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from NDSU −39.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Fordham +41.5 Won★ Under 54.5 Won
Spread: 4.8 pts better than Vegas for Fordham (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around NDSU by 36.70%
Fordham by 14+
1%
Fordham by 1–13
7%
North Dakota State by 1–13
92%
North Dakota State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Fordham | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.384 | Offense EPA / play | −0.085 #103 |
| +0.266 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.136 #120 |
| −16.3% | Offense success rate | −4.5% #112 |
| +15.8% | Defense success rate allowed | +6.2% #121 |
| −0.334 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.089 #109 |
| −0.407 | Passing EPA / play | −0.122 #122 |
| +0.268 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.135 #130 |
| +0.271 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.169 #131 |
| −25.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.9 #110 |
| +18.7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.7 #106 |
| Situational | ||
| −16.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.7% #104 |
| +16.2% | Passing-down success allowed | +6.5% #133 |
| −2.86 | Points per drive | −0.55 #93 |
| +2.93 | Points per drive allowed | +1.55 #127 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.97 | Line yards per rush | −0.37 #122 |
| +0.84 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.37 #132 |
| +9.1% | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.6% #128 |
| −6.5% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.5% #111 |
| +0.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.2% #62 |
| −9.9% | Havoc created | −4.2% #136 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.189 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.012 #80 |
| −0.145 | Passing explosiveness | +0.002 #79 |
| −0.85 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.37 #129 |
| −0.240 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.006 #117 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% | Run rate | 54% #41 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Fordham | Season to date | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 0-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 3.5 / 41.5 | Points for / against | 33.6 / 9.8 |
| -38.0 | Avg margin | +23.8 |
| +1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 44.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.8 |
Fordham: last games
No games yet.
North Dakota State: last 1 games
| W33-7 |
