Final
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM ET
University Stadium (NM) · 84° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CMU–New Mexico) | 23–27 | – | 7–38 |
| Spread | New Mexico −4.6 | New Mexico −11.5 | New Mexico −31 |
| Total | 49.6 | 47.5 | 45 |
| New Mexico win chance | 61% | – | – |
Line moved from New Mexico −12.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ CMU +11.5 Lost★ Over 47.5 Lost
Spread: 6.9 pts better than Vegas for Central Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around New Mexico by 4.612%
Central Michigan by 14+
27%
Central Michigan by 1–13
34%
New Mexico by 1–13
28%
New Mexico by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| CMU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.061 #92 | Offense EPA / play | −0.122 #125 |
| +0.086 #88 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.115 #106 |
| −3.6% #102 | Offense success rate | −5.9% #125 |
| +4.3% #99 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.3% #97 |
| −0.072 #97 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.105 #122 |
| +0.016 #47 | Passing EPA / play | −0.152 #131 |
| +0.058 #77 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.074 #92 |
| +0.103 #101 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.149 #123 |
| −7.0 #121 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.3 #116 |
| +5.6 #93 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.8 #96 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.3% #109 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.1% #120 |
| +3.6% #102 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.4% #116 |
| −0.48 #88 | Points per drive | −0.73 #116 |
| +1.26 #112 | Points per drive allowed | +1.14 #103 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.34 #118 | Line yards per rush | −0.29 #104 |
| +0.27 #109 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.14 #77 |
| +2.6% #107 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.1% #92 |
| −1.6% #87 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.8% #67 |
| +1.0% #100 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.5% #87 |
| −0.8% #80 | Havoc created | −1.5% #94 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.022 #105 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.025 #114 |
| +0.019 #52 | Passing explosiveness | −0.015 #100 |
| −0.23 #106 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.29 #122 |
| −0.047 #35 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.001 #113 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 62% #6 | Run rate | 53% #46 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| CMU | Season to date | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 17.6 / 25.4 | Points for / against | 43.4 / 10.6 |
| -7.8 | Avg margin | +32.8 |
| -1.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +19.3 |
| 46.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.0 |
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