Final
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 79° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UNLV–Hawai'i) | 27–29 | – | 21–6 |
| Spread | Hawai'i −2.1 | UNLV −2.5 | UNLV −15 |
| Total | 55.6 | 55.5 | 27 |
| Hawai'i win chance | 55% | – | – |
Line moved from UNLV −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Hawai'i +2.5 Lost★ Over 55.5 Lost
Spread: 4.6 pts better than Vegas for Hawai'i (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Hawai'i by 2.116%
UNLV by 14+
29%
UNLV by 1–13
32%
Hawai'i by 1–13
23%
Hawai'i by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UNLV | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.004 #51 | Offense EPA / play | −0.086 #105 |
| +0.110 #103 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.120 #110 |
| −0.5% #59 | Offense success rate | −4.2% #109 |
| +4.3% #98 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.7% #105 |
| −0.013 #62 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.154 #135 |
| −0.008 #62 | Passing EPA / play | −0.065 #92 |
| +0.106 #116 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.105 #114 |
| +0.096 #94 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.118 #106 |
| +0.4 #54 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.9 #90 |
| +6.3 #100 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.1 #88 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.3% #58 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.5% #85 |
| +2.6% #81 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.2% #112 |
| −0.08 #67 | Points per drive | −0.72 #114 |
| +0.92 #85 | Points per drive allowed | +0.95 #90 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.11 #60 | Line yards per rush | −0.34 #116 |
| +0.20 #91 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.35 #129 |
| +2.2% #94 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.4% #122 |
| −1.6% #86 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.3% #128 |
| +0.9% #97 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.2% #29 |
| −1.6% #98 | Havoc created | −2.0% #109 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.001 #42 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.037 #133 |
| −0.005 #91 | Passing explosiveness | +0.022 #49 |
| −0.00 #44 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.38 #133 |
| +0.001 #114 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.004 #109 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #69 | Run rate | 42% #138 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UNLV | Season to date | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 25.0 / 23.6 | Points for / against | 17.6 / 24.8 |
| +1.4 | Avg margin | -7.2 |
| -3.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.3 |
| 64.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 72.4 |
