Final
Sat, Sep 26, 4:00 PM ET
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · 74° · wind 11 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NCCU–East Carolina) | 7–50 | – | 9–42 |
| Spread | East Carolina −43.5 | East Carolina −37.5 | East Carolina −33 |
| Total | 56.9 | 58.5 | 51 |
| East Carolina win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from East Carolina −34.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ East Carolina −37.5 Lost★ Under 58.5 Won
Spread: 6.0 pts better than Vegas for East Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.6 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around East Carolina by 43.50%
North Carolina Central by 14+
0%
North Carolina Central by 1–13
3%
East Carolina by 1–13
97%
East Carolina by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NCCU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.362 | Offense EPA / play | −0.050 #83 |
| +0.334 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.017 #56 |
| −15.6% | Offense success rate | −1.6% #75 |
| +13.2% | Defense success rate allowed | +0.4% #50 |
| −0.252 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.038 #81 |
| −0.431 | Passing EPA / play | −0.087 #95 |
| +0.272 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.056 #76 |
| +0.337 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.082 #25 |
| −18.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.0 #87 |
| +23.3 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.8 #64 |
| Situational | ||
| −14.6% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.3% #116 |
| +11.4% | Passing-down success allowed | +5.0% #103 |
| −2.95 | Points per drive | −0.56 #89 |
| +2.89 | Points per drive allowed | +0.45 #64 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.29 | Line yards per rush | −0.32 #107 |
| +0.70 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.02 #52 |
| +10.7% | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.6% #84 |
| −6.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.8% #27 |
| +6.7% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.8% #55 |
| −3.6% | Havoc created | −0.5% #69 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.092 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.015 #70 |
| −0.071 | Passing explosiveness | +0.051 #55 |
| −0.18 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.03 #56 |
| +0.248 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.012 #76 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% | Run rate | 56% #25 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +2.1 #10 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NCCU | Season to date | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 9.0 / 42.0 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 25.2 |
| -33.0 | Avg margin | -1.2 |
| +4.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.5 |
| 56.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.5 |
North Carolina Central: last games
No games yet.
East Carolina: last 3 games
| W20-17 | |
| L24-27 | |
| L10-48 |
