Final
Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM ET
S.B. Ballard Stadium · 76° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (East Carolina–Old Dominion) | 26–25 | – | 20–17 |
| Spread | East Carolina −1.4 | Old Dominion −2.5 | East Carolina −3 |
| Total | 50.5 | 48.5 | 37 |
| Old Dominion win chance | 46% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ East Carolina +2.5 Won★ Over 48.5 Lost
Spread: 3.9 pts better than Vegas for East Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around East Carolina by 1.421%
East Carolina by 14+
32%
East Carolina by 1–13
30%
Old Dominion by 1–13
17%
Old Dominion by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| East Carolina | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.021 #49 | Offense EPA / play | −0.100 #103 |
| +0.078 #82 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.024 #56 |
| +0.3% #53 | Offense success rate | −4.8% #111 |
| +2.4% #69 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.4% #41 |
| −0.008 #59 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.099 #105 |
| +0.025 #49 | Passing EPA / play | −0.100 #98 |
| +0.052 #73 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.059 #29 |
| +0.062 #76 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.059 #75 |
| −2.5 #75 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.5 #105 |
| +2.2 #67 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.9 #74 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.6% #104 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.7% #43 |
| +6.6% #124 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.3% #103 |
| −0.39 #80 | Points per drive | −1.09 #116 |
| +0.47 #67 | Points per drive allowed | +0.66 #74 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.43 #119 | Line yards per rush | −0.99 #137 |
| +0.01 #54 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.11 #39 |
| +4.4% #115 | Runs stuffed at the line | +6.7% #129 |
| +2.4% #29 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.3% #21 |
| +0.2% #75 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.6% #131 |
| −1.3% #83 | Havoc created | +1.9% #25 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.028 #82 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.215 #3 |
| +0.075 #45 | Passing explosiveness | +0.191 #16 |
| −0.14 #69 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.42 #14 |
| +0.001 #83 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.054 #55 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #52 | Run rate | 59% #11 |
| +10.3 #1 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.2 #83 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| East Carolina | Season to date | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 0-5 |
| 1-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 24.0 / 25.2 | Points for / against | 19.8 / 32.4 |
| -1.2 | Avg margin | -12.6 |
| -4.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -16.2 |
| 49.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.4 |
Old Dominion: last 2 games
| L21-44 | |
| W31-10 |
