Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET
Alamodome · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (RGV–UTSA) | 12–47 | – | 16–45 |
| Spread | UTSA −35.4 | UTSA −28.5 | UTSA −29 |
| Total | 59.1 | 59.5 | 61 |
| UTSA win chance | 99% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UTSA −28.5 Won★ Under 59.5 Lost
Spread: 6.9 pts better than Vegas for UTSA (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UTSA by 35.40%
UT Rio Grande Valley by 14+
1%
UT Rio Grande Valley by 1–13
8%
UTSA by 1–13
91%
UTSA by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| RGV | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.190 | Offense EPA / play | −0.009 #63 |
| +0.288 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.057 #76 |
| −10.4% | Offense success rate | −0.8% #61 |
| +13.3% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.3% #57 |
| −0.196 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.009 #50 |
| −0.226 | Passing EPA / play | −0.021 #71 |
| +0.254 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.060 #79 |
| +0.320 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.060 #74 |
| −12.5 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.1 #43 |
| +16.5 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.6 #85 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.0% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.0% #53 |
| +12.0% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.6% #66 |
| −1.39 | Points per drive | +0.25 #45 |
| +2.92 | Points per drive allowed | +0.98 #91 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.65 | Line yards per rush | −0.24 #94 |
| +0.68 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.09 #68 |
| +6.2% | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.4% #102 |
| −6.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.9% #69 |
| −0.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.4% #82 |
| −9.2% | Havoc created | +0.7% #39 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.048 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.015 #14 |
| +0.042 | Passing explosiveness | −0.037 #127 |
| −0.53 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.17 #17 |
| −0.034 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.036 #132 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% | Run rate | 50% #99 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| RGV | Season to date | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 16.0 / 45.0 | Points for / against | 31.4 / 26.2 |
| -29.0 | Avg margin | +5.2 |
| -0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.5 |
| 62.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.0 |
UT Rio Grande Valley: last games
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