Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET
Jerry Richardson Stadium · 89° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (The Citadel–Charlotte) | 15–35 | – | 43–41 |
| Spread | Charlotte −19.8 | Charlotte −20.5 | The Citadel −2 |
| Total | 49.4 | 49.5 | 84 |
| Charlotte win chance | 89% | – | – |
Line moved from Charlotte −15.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ The Citadel +20.5 Won★ Under 49.5 Lost
Spread: 0.7 pts better than Vegas for The Citadel (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Charlotte by 19.82%
The Citadel by 14+
9%
The Citadel by 1–13
25%
Charlotte by 1–13
64%
Charlotte by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| The Citadel | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.246 | Offense EPA / play | −0.144 #134 |
| +0.356 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.099 #113 |
| −13.1% | Offense success rate | −5.5% #133 |
| +15.0% | Defense success rate allowed | +7.1% #137 |
| −0.169 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.106 #138 |
| −0.088 | Passing EPA / play | −0.144 #128 |
| +0.210 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.087 #124 |
| +0.502 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.117 #108 |
| −20.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.1 #133 |
| +12.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +8.0 #128 |
| Situational | ||
| −15.6% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.8% #115 |
| +12.6% | Passing-down success allowed | +3.3% #126 |
| −2.63 | Points per drive | −1.00 #133 |
| +2.31 | Points per drive allowed | +0.86 #125 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.58 | Line yards per rush | −0.31 #138 |
| +0.51 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.25 #134 |
| +3.5% | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.5% #136 |
| −2.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.5% #133 |
| −3.4% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.6% #129 |
| −7.8% | Havoc created | −2.6% #129 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.084 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.066 #138 |
| +0.543 | Passing explosiveness | +0.160 #26 |
| −0.43 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.36 #128 |
| +0.003 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.035 #13 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 79% | Run rate | 54% #87 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| The Citadel | Season to date | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-5 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 0-3 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 43.0 / 41.0 | Points for / against | 17.2 / 40.6 |
| +2.0 | Avg margin | -23.4 |
| +22.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -9.7 |
| 61.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.0 |
The Citadel: last games
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Charlotte: last games
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