Final
Sat, Aug 29, 10:00 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Memphis–UNLV) | 26–30 | – | 27–21 |
| Spread | UNLV −3.4 | UNLV −4.5 | Memphis −6 |
| Total | 55.8 | 55.5 | 48 |
| UNLV win chance | 58% | – | – |
Line moved from UNLV −3 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Memphis +4.5 Won★ Over 55.5 Lost
Spread: 1.1 pts better than Vegas for Memphis (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UNLV by 3.414%
Memphis by 14+
28%
Memphis by 1–13
33%
UNLV by 1–13
26%
UNLV by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Memphis | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.007 #61 | Offense EPA / play | +0.004 #51 |
| +0.058 #77 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.110 #103 |
| −0.8% #60 | Offense success rate | −0.5% #59 |
| +1.8% #65 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.3% #98 |
| +0.025 #37 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.013 #62 |
| −0.027 #74 | Passing EPA / play | −0.008 #62 |
| +0.029 #54 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.106 #116 |
| +0.066 #76 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.096 #94 |
| −0.6 #64 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.4 #54 |
| +1.5 #65 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.3 #100 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.8% #66 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.3% #58 |
| +1.5% #62 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.6% #81 |
| −0.25 #78 | Points per drive | −0.08 #67 |
| +0.40 #55 | Points per drive allowed | +0.92 #85 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.02 #45 | Line yards per rush | −0.11 #60 |
| −0.05 #33 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.20 #91 |
| +1.0% #66 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.2% #94 |
| +0.9% #30 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.6% #86 |
| −0.6% #47 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.9% #97 |
| −0.4% #67 | Havoc created | −1.6% #98 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.006 #32 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.001 #42 |
| +0.011 #63 | Passing explosiveness | −0.005 #91 |
| +0.02 #36 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.00 #44 |
| −0.008 #103 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.001 #114 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #92 | Run rate | 51% #69 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Memphis | Season to date | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 38.6 / 22.4 | Points for / against | 25.0 / 23.6 |
| +16.2 | Avg margin | +1.4 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.6 |
| 62.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.4 |
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