Final
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET
Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 76° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Lafayette–UConn) | 15–47 | – | 7–56 |
| Spread | UConn −32.2 | UConn −21.5 | UConn −49 |
| Total | 61.4 | 51.5 | 63 |
| UConn win chance | 98% | – | – |
Line moved from UConn −19.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UConn −21.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Won
Spread: 10.7 pts better than Vegas for UConn (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 9.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UConn by 32.20%
Lafayette by 14+
2%
Lafayette by 1–13
11%
UConn by 1–13
87%
UConn by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Lafayette | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.199 | Offense EPA / play | −0.023 #74 |
| +0.315 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.098 #110 |
| −7.9% | Offense success rate | −1.6% #92 |
| +15.2% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.1% #116 |
| −0.091 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.005 #97 |
| −0.282 | Passing EPA / play | −0.051 #80 |
| +0.307 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.089 #125 |
| +0.319 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.090 #92 |
| −9.4 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.6 #77 |
| +21.3 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.3 #109 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.9% #101 |
| +12.3% | Passing-down success allowed | +3.0% #121 |
| −1.60 | Points per drive | −0.37 #84 |
| +2.66 | Points per drive allowed | +0.60 #108 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.37 | Line yards per rush | −0.07 #123 |
| +0.66 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.23 #127 |
| +2.6% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.5% #108 |
| −4.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.3% #129 |
| −2.9% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #104 |
| −10.1% | Havoc created | −0.6% #67 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.126 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.004 #88 |
| −0.094 | Passing explosiveness | +0.052 #120 |
| −0.10 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.14 #75 |
| −0.208 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.031 #106 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% | Run rate | 51% #121 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Lafayette | Season to date | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 7.0 / 56.0 | Points for / against | 36.0 / 26.2 |
| -49.0 | Avg margin | +9.8 |
| -27.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.9 |
| 55.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.4 |
Lafayette: last games
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UConn: last games
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