Final
Sat, Sep 19, 10:00 PM ET
Snapdragon Stadium · 69° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (James Madison–SDSU) | 25–26 | – | 26–13 |
| Spread | SDSU −0.9 | SDSU −3 | James Madison −13 |
| Total | 50.9 | 46.5 | 39 |
| San Diego State win chance | 52% | – | – |
Line moved from SDSU −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ James Madison +3 Won★ Over 46.5 Lost
Spread: 2.1 pts better than Vegas for James Madison (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.4 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around SDSU by 0.917%
James Madison by 14+
30%
James Madison by 1–13
32%
San Diego State by 1–13
21%
San Diego State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| James Madison | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.041 #80 | Offense EPA / play | −0.119 #113 |
| +0.068 #75 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.043 #70 |
| −3.3% #90 | Offense success rate | −6.5% #122 |
| +1.2% #58 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.9% #75 |
| +0.005 #54 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.022 #68 |
| −0.081 #95 | Passing EPA / play | −0.210 #129 |
| +0.092 #91 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.049 #69 |
| +0.133 #103 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.014 #58 |
| +3.5 #35 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.0 #90 |
| +3.2 #77 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.9 #64 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.2% #24 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.2% #109 |
| +5.4% #112 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.8% #70 |
| +1.28 #19 | Points per drive | −0.21 #65 |
| +1.09 #102 | Points per drive allowed | +0.65 #73 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.27 #97 | Line yards per rush | −0.16 #78 |
| −0.06 #49 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.55 #130 |
| +3.7% #111 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.9% #102 |
| −2.7% #98 | Opponent runs stuffed | −9.0% #138 |
| −1.1% #41 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.8% #88 |
| −4.1% #132 | Havoc created | −4.4% #134 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.007 #65 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.031 #53 |
| +0.047 #54 | Passing explosiveness | +0.016 #62 |
| −0.07 #56 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.30 #91 |
| −0.020 #73 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.002 #81 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #44 | Run rate | 62% #7 |
| −33.8 #138 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −17.0 #96 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| James Madison | Season to date | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 5-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 44.8 / 13.2 | Points for / against | 24.6 / 28.8 |
| +31.6 | Avg margin | -4.2 |
| +17.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.3 |
| 60.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.4 |
San Diego State: last 2 games
| L10-28 | |
| W53-20 |
