Final
Sat, Sep 19, 10:00 PM ET
Albertsons Stadium · 63° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (South Dakota–Boise State) | 15–48 | – | 24–38 |
| Spread | Boise State −32.5 | Boise State −28.5 | Boise State −14 |
| Total | 63.4 | 61.5 | 62 |
| Boise State win chance | 98% | – | – |
Line moved from Boise State −23.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Boise State −28.5 Lost★ Over 61.5 Won
Spread: 4.0 pts better than Vegas for Boise State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Boise State by 32.50%
South Dakota by 14+
2%
South Dakota by 1–13
11%
Boise State by 1–13
87%
Boise State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| South Dakota | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.058 | Offense EPA / play | +0.093 #24 |
| +0.256 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.003 #41 |
| −6.2% | Offense success rate | +0.6% #50 |
| +8.5% | Defense success rate allowed | −1.4% #28 |
| −0.077 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.066 #28 |
| +0.006 | Passing EPA / play | +0.045 #43 |
| +0.219 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.023 #58 |
| +0.220 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.018 #62 |
| −5.7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.3 #37 |
| +14.5 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.5 #45 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.2% #47 |
| +3.4% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.5% #53 |
| −1.05 | Points per drive | +0.28 #44 |
| +2.40 | Points per drive allowed | −0.07 #25 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.69 | Line yards per rush | +0.23 #18 |
| +0.91 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.19 #24 |
| +12.5% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.3% #24 |
| −6.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | +5.4% #8 |
| +5.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.0% #13 |
| −2.4% | Havoc created | +2.9% #12 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.254 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.054 #93 |
| +0.150 | Passing explosiveness | +0.023 #61 |
| +0.67 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.09 #60 |
| +0.092 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.137 #126 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 58% #19 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +4.7 #10 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| South Dakota | Season to date | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 24.0 / 38.0 | Points for / against | 34.4 / 20.6 |
| -14.0 | Avg margin | +13.8 |
| +14.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.5 |
| 51.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 67.6 |
