Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 94° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UTSA–Texas State) | 32–30 | – | 31–26 |
| Spread | UTSA −2.0 | Texas State −1.5 | UTSA −5 |
| Total | 62.9 | 65.5 | 57 |
| Texas State win chance | 45% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UTSA +1.5 Won★ Under 65.5 Won
Spread: 3.5 pts better than Vegas for UTSA (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 2.6 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UTSA by 2.023%
UTSA by 14+
32%
UTSA by 1–13
29%
Texas State by 1–13
17%
Texas State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UTSA | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.016 #61 | Offense EPA / play | +0.063 #32 |
| +0.022 #60 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.118 #102 |
| +1.2% #45 | Offense success rate | +2.2% #37 |
| +3.5% #85 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.8% #87 |
| −0.003 #58 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.026 #46 |
| −0.052 #85 | Passing EPA / play | +0.075 #30 |
| +0.100 #103 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.021 #59 |
| −0.033 #36 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.207 #124 |
| +2.2 #44 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.6 #56 |
| +4.9 #92 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +10.3 #128 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.6% #135 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +9.7% #4 |
| +2.2% #73 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.5% #104 |
| +0.24 #41 | Points per drive | −0.03 #54 |
| +0.94 #92 | Points per drive allowed | +2.16 #133 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.24 #94 | Line yards per rush | −0.01 #50 |
| +0.23 #99 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.20 #22 |
| +2.2% #89 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.5% #75 |
| −2.3% #96 | Opponent runs stuffed | +5.2% #5 |
| +0.3% #77 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.7% #44 |
| −0.2% #64 | Havoc created | −0.4% #68 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.025 #83 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.010 #67 |
| −0.140 #127 | Passing explosiveness | +0.023 #62 |
| +0.51 #9 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.81 #4 |
| −0.167 #15 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.066 #109 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #86 | Run rate | 55% #27 |
| −24.7 #100 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +23.0 #3 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UTSA | Season to date | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 31.4 / 26.2 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 33.2 |
| +5.2 | Avg margin | +1.6 |
| +0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.5 |
| 61.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 67.4 |
UTSA: last 1 games
| W45-16 |
Texas State: last 1 games
| L7-59 |
