Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Canvas Stadium · 73° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Southern Utah–Colorado State) | 19–43 | – | 24–58 |
| Spread | Colorado State −23.9 | Colorado State −19.5 | Colorado State −34 |
| Total | 61.8 | 57.5 | 82 |
| Colorado State win chance | 93% | – | – |
Line moved from Colorado State −20.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Colorado State −19.5 Won★ Over 57.5 Won
Spread: 4.4 pts better than Vegas for Colorado State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 4.3 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Colorado State by 23.91%
Southern Utah by 14+
6%
Southern Utah by 1–13
20%
Colorado State by 1–13
73%
Colorado State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Southern Utah | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.194 | Offense EPA / play | −0.027 #66 |
| +0.289 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.071 #79 |
| −7.2% | Offense success rate | −1.3% #65 |
| +12.2% | Defense success rate allowed | +5.5% #114 |
| −0.156 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.085 #101 |
| −0.164 | Passing EPA / play | +0.004 #58 |
| +0.262 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.106 #106 |
| +0.270 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.087 #87 |
| −9.7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.4 #87 |
| +18.2 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.0 #93 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.4% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.7% #64 |
| +13.0% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.6% #79 |
| −2.18 | Points per drive | −0.60 #94 |
| +2.31 | Points per drive allowed | +0.81 #87 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.52 | Line yards per rush | −0.41 #120 |
| +0.87 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.44 #122 |
| +8.2% | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.7% #112 |
| −2.0% | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.4% #125 |
| +1.4% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.5% #106 |
| +0.0% | Havoc created | +0.7% #42 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.169 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.064 #101 |
| +0.017 | Passing explosiveness | +0.001 #71 |
| +0.03 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.24 #88 |
| +0.249 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.112 #33 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 60% | Run rate | 49% #97 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.5 #80 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Southern Utah | Season to date | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-2 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 24.0 / 58.0 | Points for / against | 37.4 / 38.6 |
| -34.0 | Avg margin | -1.2 |
| -14.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 66.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.8 |
Southern Utah: last games
No games yet.
Colorado State: last 1 games
| W35-13 |
